Ethereum Surges 25% in August—But September Could Be a Bloodbath

Ethereum just ripped through August with a 25% gain—now traders are bracing for a historically treacherous September.

Will the smart contract giant defy seasonal trends or get wrecked like clockwork?

Meanwhile, Wall Street still can't decide if crypto is 'digital gold' or a glorified casino. Place your bets.

In brief

• Ether (ETH) shows an increase of more than 25% since early August, supported by a favorable macroeconomic context.
• Since 2016, every bullish August for ETH has been followed by a red September.
• CoinGlass data shows an average loss of 6.42% for ETH in September over the last nine years.
• This bearish trend is even stronger in post-halving years, according to several analysts.

History against Ether? A high-risk September

Since 2016, September has established itself as a real pitfall for Ether, especially after strong performances in August, such as its new all-time high.

The historical data compiled by CoinGlass reveals a worrying regularity: every time Ether experienced a bullish August, it dropped the following month.

Here are the three previous cases observed by analysts:

• August 2017: Ether jumps +92.86% before collapsing -21.65% in September;
• August 2020: a rise of +25.32%, followed by a drop of -17.08% in September;
• August 2021: another surge of +35.62%, before a correction of -12.55% in September.

Over the entire 2016–2024 period, the average loss for September stands at -6.42%, making it one of the historically most unfavorable months for the ETH price.

This trend is even more pronounced in post-halving years, according to trader CryptoGoos’s analysis. “ETH seasonality in September during post-halving years is typically negative. Will this time be an exception?“, he posted on the social network X this Friday.

$ETH seasonality in September during post-halving years is typically negative.

Will this time be different? pic.twitter.com/h9hJ40V3np

This critical pattern occurs even as Ether posts a notable performance this month, driven by expectations of a rate cut following comments judged conciliatory from Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole. Despite this momentum, the specter of a seasonal reversal still looms, like a warning signal for experienced investors.

The ETF effect and corporate entry: a paradigm shift?

Unlike previous years, this August has been marked by notable structural changes in the Ether market, likely to nuance purely historical readings.

According to Farside, spot ETH ETFs have recorded $2.79 billion in net inflows this month, while their Bitcoin equivalents have faced $1.2 billion in net outflows.

This dynamic has been described as a notable change by Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management. It reflects growing institutional investor interest in Ether, fueled notably by the sectoral diversification it offers beyond the simple bitcoin store-of-value narrative.

Spot eth ETFs w/ $340mil inflows yesterday…

So far in August:

Spot eth ETFs = $2.8bil inflows

Spot BTC ETFs = $1.2bil *outflows*

Since beginning of July:

Spot eth ETFs = $8.2bil inflows

Spot btc ETFs = $4.8bil inflows

Notable recent shift.

This movement is corroborated by corporate treasury activity. On August 11, the total ETH held by companies via their balance sheets surpassed $13 billion, according to data relayed by Satoshi Stacker.

Historically, any time $ETH has been green in August, it has seen a correction in September.

If this pattern holds and we get an $ETH dip next month, will you be buying? pic.twitter.com/3QzTJjM3uX

Among the notable transactions is the purchase of $45 million ETH by Tom Lee for BitMine, bringing the company’s holdings close to $7 billion. Such massive accumulation was not observable during previous bullish August months.

Moreover, bitcoin dominance is down by 5.88% over the last 30 days, signaling a capital redistribution towards other crypto market assets, with Ethereum leading the way.

These signals could indicate a regime change for the ETH market. While caution remains warranted given historical data, new structural factors, ETF flows, institutional appetite, and a more diversified market dynamic could soften or even reverse the bearish trend observed in September in the past. However, only an actual decline in September will validate or invalidate the hypothesis of a cycle shift.

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