Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Moment: Why $117K Is the Only Price That Matters Now

Bitcoin's flirting with history again—but this time, the stakes are higher than a crypto bro's leverage.

The magic number: $117,000 isn't just another resistance level. It's the line in the sand separating 'generational wealth' tweets from margin call meltdowns.

Why traders are sweating: Every analyst's chart looks like a laser light show right now, but they all converge on one truth—break this level, and BTC becomes a runaway freight train. Miss it? Enjoy the 'macroeconomic headwinds' copium.

The cynical kicker: Wall Street's still waiting for 'institutional adoption' while retail traders YOLO their rent money. Some things never change—except maybe your portfolio if BTC nails this breakout.

In brief

• Bitcoin is moving within a consolidation phase between $78,000 and $110,000, but several technical signals suggest a bullish recovery.
• The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH), a key on-chain analysis indicator, identifies a strategic threshold at $117,113.
• This rarely reached threshold is considered the upper boundary of short-term price action according to Glassnode data.
• A daily close above this resistance could validate a breakout toward $117,000, or even $130,000 according to some scenarios.

A crucial technical threshold identified at $117,000

The primary trigger for the current bullish tension lies in on-chain data analysis, particularly the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, while Donald TRUMP is once again interested in the asset and praises it. This metric, which corresponds to the average price paid by investors who acquired BTC less than 155 days ago, acts as a leading indicator of market sentiment.

Glassnode specifies that this threshold “represents the upper boundary of short-term price action”. This boundary was only reached once last May, when bitcoin hit its all-time high around $112,000. Today, this level could shift and precisely be at $117,113.

Over the past six months, #Bitcoin has traded within a well-defined short-term band. The upper boundary – +1 STD above the STH cost basis – was tested only once in late May and currently stands at $117,113. This level can be seen as the upper band of the short-term price action. pic.twitter.com/DPEZMKLDqY

Several factors help to understand why this threshold is now considered a key level to watch :

• The recent price history : since January, BTC has been moving within a clearly defined range between $78,000 and $110,000, without decisively breaking out ;

• The past reaction to the threshold : the $112,000 level, close to the current $117,000, coincided with the historical peak in May ;

• The psychological role of the STH cost basis : as long as the BTC price remains above the average cost of short-term holders, they generally remain profitable, which tends to strengthen the market’s bullish conviction ;

• Glassnode’s data : the analytical infrastructure considers this threshold to be “the upper limit of short-term price action,” making it a natural target in case of a technical breakout.

This convergence of factors therefore places the $117,000 mark as a strategic short-term technical target for Bitcoin.

The technical resistance at $110,000 : a potential trigger for a bull run toward $130,000

Beyond the on-chain data, the attention of technical analysts is now focused on a decisive price zone: $109,000 to $110,000, identified as a potential breakout line by several market figures.

Analyst Rekt Capital points out that Bitcoin is “retesting its multi-month descending trendline”. Furthermore, he wonders : “how many more rejections before Bitcoin finally breaks out?” In the supporting chart published, this descending trendline constitutes a major resistance, and only a daily close above it WOULD validate a bullish breakout.

#BTC

How many more rejections from the Daily Downtrend before Bitcoin finally breaks out?

Is the Downtrend weakening as a point of rejection?

Bitcoin needs to Daily Close and retest the Downtrend as support to confirm the breakout$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/EgQ7AFChkA

Another well-known analyst, Jelle, estimates that BTC could target $130,000 if a close establishes above the upper bound of the “bull flag” at $110,000. He bases this on a measured target derived from the current chart configuration.

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), on its side, still gives momentum to this projection. The overheating zone has not yet been reached: it is around $123,000, implying that the market has not yet reached an excessive valuation level according to this metric.

The conjunction of a strong on-chain signal with a tight technical setup reinforces the prospect of a strong forthcoming directional move. If BTC convincingly breaks above $110,000, an extension toward $117,000 seems plausible, and some analysts even target $130,000 in case of a clear breakout.

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