Polymarket Puts 83% Odds on an XRP ETF—Because Wall Street Loves a Bandwagon

Prediction markets are doubling down on crypto’s next big regulatory play. Polymarket traders now see an 83% chance of an XRP ETF launching—a bet that reeks of either insider insight or hopium-fueled speculation.

While the SEC keeps playing whack-a-mole with crypto projects, Wall Street’s suddenly all-in on the very assets it mocked three years ago. Funny how profit motives change the narrative.

If approved, an XRP ETF would complete crypto’s ironic journey from ’fraud’ to ’legitimate asset class’—at least until the next congressional hearing.

In Brief

• The probability of approval for a spot XRP ETF reaches 83 % according to Polymarket, sparking strong interest in crypto markets.
• Several XRP derivative products have been launched on regulated platforms, strengthening institutional appeal for the asset.
• Despite enthusiasm, the SEC remains cautious and has postponed other projects, such as those from Grayscale and Solana.
• Market forecasts, however optimistic, remain volatile and dependent on regulatory developments until October.

Market Dynamics : Towards an Early Approval ?

The CME Group has officially launched futures contracts on XRP starting May 19, marking a significant advance in the institutional structuring of the digital asset.

Signals in favor of a spot XRP ETF have multiplied recently, fueling palpable Optimism in the markets. At the heart of this excitement, the prediction platform Polymarket has estimated an 83 % probability of near-term approval, an unprecedented level.

This anticipation contrasts with the SEC’s usually rigid timeline. As James Seyffart, analyst at Bloomberg, reminds us, “the SEC often uses the entire 240-day period to review 19b-4 type applications”. A recent example illustrates this trend. On May 20, the Commission postponed its decision on Bitwise’s Ether staking, extending the deadline to July 22.

Behind these numbers lies a series of concrete events that show growing institutional interest :

• The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched its first XRP futures contracts, marking a major step in regulating the asset ;
• A few days later, Volatility Shares listed an ETF based on XRP futures (XRPI) on Nasdaq, adding a new layer of legitimacy to the product ;
• Meanwhile, the company Tectrium unveiled a 2x Long Daily XRP ETF, designed for investors seeking leverage on the asset’s daily performance.

Although these are not yet spot products, these instruments available on regulated platforms reflect sustained demand from institutional investors. Subsequently, the price of XRP appreciated, reinforcing the perception of favorable momentum. The market thus seems to anticipate a green light in the short to medium term, even if official deadlines remain, for the most part, set for October.

The SEC Under Pressure : An Inevitable Regulatory Shift?

Beyond market noise, it is the internal discourse among historical players in the ecosystem that draws attention. Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, reminded in the company’s official podcast that the emergence of ETFs represents a preferred entry point for financial institutions: “ETFs allow Wall Street to get exposure to crypto without going through exchanges or private wallets”.

He cited the example of the Bitcoin ETF, which reached $1 billion in assets faster than any other ETF in history, to emphasize the similar potential of a product related to XRP. This statement is not mere communication but a strategic positioning as the SEC appears to be losing the narrative control around crypto ETFs.

In this climate of regulatory stirrings, caution remains essential. The SEC has deferred decisions on other products, notably the Grayscale XRP Trust and a solana ETF in preparation. These repeated delays feed a sense of dilatory, even defensive, management on the regulator’s part. Analysts also underline that probabilities from platforms like Polymarket, though interesting as sentiment indicators, remain very volatile. Nothing guarantees that today’s observed trend will hold as October deadlines approach.

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.