Dumping Bitcoin Now? This Metric Screams ’Hold’

Bitcoin’s on-chain data flashes a historic buy signal—just as weak hands start panic-selling. The Puell Multiple, a miner revenue indicator, has dipped into territory that’s preceded every major bull run since 2012.

Meanwhile, Wall Street ’experts’ who called the $30k top are now quietly accumulating. Classic.

Key levels to watch: A clean break above $65k could trigger a liquidity cascade as institutional FOMO meets retail capitulation. Remember—the market always hurts the most participants.

In brief

• The STH-SOPR remains below the critical threshold, signaling that no massive profit-taking is underway on bitcoin.
• Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs support demand and stabilize the market.
• CryptoQuant recommends a gradual selling strategy to maximize gains.
• On-chain indicators confirm a still active bullish cycle on bitcoin, with no sign of an imminent peak.

Bitcoin: the STH-SOPR, thermometer of euphoria or caution

The STH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio for short-term holders) is used to measure profits realized on the sale of bitcoins held for less than 155 days. When it exceeds the threshold of 1 excessively, it indicates that Bitcoin holders are taking their gains, often near a peak. Conversely, when it remains close to or below 1, this signals an accumulation phase. 

Currently, data shows that the STH-SOPR remains moderate, far from the red zones of euphoria observed during market highs. BTC therefore retains room for growth, supported by an still healthy market structure. This technical signal helps to avoid rushed sales during consolidation phases.

Why bitcoin has not yet reached its profit-taking zone

According to CryptoQuant, the bitcoin market remains far from a distribution phase. The STH-SOPR has not crossed the critical threshold signaling excess profit-taking. Several factors strengthen this reading: institutional interest remains supported by inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and miners continue to store part of their production. 

Moreover, on-chain analysis demonstrates market resilience that absorbs selling pressure without imbalance. As long as the red zone of the STH-SOPR is not reached, the chances of an extension of the bullish cycle remain high. This indicates that BTC holders still favor a waiting strategy rather than a massive exit.

Planning a gradual exit: the CryptoQuant method

CryptoQuant recommends a gradual strategy to secure gains on bitcoin. This approach, symmetrical to that of progressive accumulation, allows to benefit from the bullish market without trying to sell at the absolute peak. Here are the key advantages of this method:

• Reduced stress related to perfect timing;
• Better exposure to prolonged rallies;
• Smoothing of short-term volatility effects;
• Enhanced discipline in portfolio management.

This exit framework is based on objective indicators, such as the STH-SOPR, avoiding emotional decisions. Consequently, investors can secure profits as distribution signals emerge, without exiting prematurely from an active bullish cycle.

What this means for investors in 2025

Current market analysis suggests that bitcoin could continue its upward trend as long as technical signals like the STH-SOPR remain favorable. For investors, this implies dual vigilance: monitor key indicators while maintaining a consistent strategy.

Additionally, buying pressure supported by Bitcoin ETFs and the absence of panic selling reinforce the idea of a market building towards a peak, rather than in decline. Premature profit-taking could deprive holders of significant gains if momentum continues. At this stage, patience remains a strategic advantage for bitcoin holders.

How to interpret on-chain indicators before selling your bitcoin

Before any bitcoin selling decision, on-chain data offer reliable benchmarks to gauge market momentum. Here are the main signals to watch:

• STH-SOPR: indicates if recent sellers are realizing profits or not;
• NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): measures latent profits on the network;
• Accumulation ratio by age bracket: signals if “whales” are holding or distributing;
• Exchange balances: increase = potential selling pressure; decrease = long-term storage;
• ETF flows: reflect institutional interest in real-time.

Cross-interpretation of these data helps anticipate cycle reversals without depending on market emotions. To navigate the 2025 bull run, relying on these benchmarks becomes a decisive decision-making lever.

As experts are already considering 3 inevitable scenarios for the 2025 altseason, Bitcoin remains supported by solid on-chain indicators, and nothing yet signals a definitive peak. Betting on data, not emotions, allows one to stay aligned with the market. The real question now: should one aim for a top or secure gains in stages?

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