Bitcoin to $1M: Delusional Moon Math or Inevitable Scarcity Play?

Crypto’s ultimate trophy hunt is back—analysts dust off hyperbullish models predicting Bitcoin could smash the seven-figure barrier. Institutional FOMO meets fixed supply economics, with BlackRock’s ETF inflows acting as rocket fuel.

Meanwhile, Wall Street quietly hedges its bets—Goldman just launched a ’BTC Wealth Preservation’ seminar (translation: how to cash out before the plebs).

The real question isn’t if Bitcoin hits $1M, but whether your exit strategy involves a Lambo or lasting through the next 80% correction. Tick tock next block.

In Brief

• Asset manager VanEck envisions Bitcoin reaching $2.9 million by 2050, in response to the decline of major fiat currencies.
• U.S. monetary policy is shifting: Trump has signed an executive order creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve funded by non-tax revenues.
• The Bitcoin Policy Institute believes a large-scale BTC purchase by the U.S. could trigger a “global shock” and push its price to $1 million.
• All economic, political, and financial signals point to Bitcoin increasingly being seen as a global strategic asset.

Speculative Surge According to Historical Figures of the Crypto Sphere

The American management company VanEck sparked a wave of reactions in July 2024 by proposing a scenario where bitcoin could reach up to 3 million dollars. According to their analysis, this projection is based on the hypothesis that the asset would capture 60% of the worldu2019s gold reserves.

The asset manageru2019s analysts explained: u201Cthis gives us a range between 1.3 and 4.8 million dollars per bitcoinu201D.

This extrapolation fits into a series of ambitious predictions supported by other sector leaders, who see the current situation as a unique opportunity for a structural revaluation of the asset.

A few weeks later in November 2024, while the markets were digesting this projection, another statement attracted attention: that of Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

Asked about the sudden rise in bullish predictions linked to a possible re-election of Donald Trump, he declared:

The market seems to have reacted in anticipation to Trumpu2019s previous hints about potentially designating BTC as a strategic reserve asset. On platforms like Polymarket, bets on Trumpu2019s victory climbed to an impressive 90%, despite the gap with traditional polling data. This reflects the strong commitment of BTC believers and the crypto communityu2019s anticipation of a favorable stance towards these assets under Trumpu2019s potential leadership.

During the same period, Cathie Wood, director of ARK Invest, envisions a scenario where bitcoin reaches 1.5 million dollars by 2030, assuming continued adoption as a SAFE haven.

Several major personalities in the crypto ecosystem share this long-term vision:

• Eric Larchevêque, co-founder of Ledger, mentioned in December 2024 the beginning of a u201Csuper cycleu201D and asserted: u201Cit is not science fiction to think that bitcoin can reach one million dollarsu201D.
• Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, remained steadfast in April 2025 in his projection of a one million dollar bitcoin, emphasizing the decrease in available supply and the growing interest in BTC as an anti-inflationary asset.
• Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, reiterated in April 2025 his prediction of a one million dollar bitcoin by 2028. He cites expansive monetary policy and institutional interest as key drivers.

These estimates, though ambitious, are based on an analysis combining algorithmic scarcity, positioning as a store of value, and the rising influence of institutional flows. They reflect a conviction shared by an increasing segment of the industry: bitcoin could, in the medium term, rise to the rank of a true global strategic asset.

Between Geopolitics and Regulation: The New Levers for a Seven-Figure Bitcoin

Since his return to the White House, Donald TRUMP has radically shifted the U.S. crypto policy, displaying a clear ambition: to make the United States a “bitcoin superpower”. This direction has been marked by several strong measures.

On March 7, 2025, a presidential decree officially established the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, coupled with a state crypto-buying plan at constant budget. Matthew Pines, director of strategy at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, believes such a strategy could send the price leaping to 1 million dollars by shaking global perception of this asset’s value.

Another element reinforcing this dynamic is the return of Paul Atkins, a well-known pro-crypto lawyer, as head of the SEC. His profile, opposed to the restrictive policies of Gary Gensler, is seen as a potentially decisive signal in favor of more accommodating regulation.

Moreover, another acceleration factor is provided by Bitwise through André Dragosch, its head of research. According to him, the massive arrival of approved U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with growing government demand, could push bitcoin to 1 million dollars by 2029. He highlights that u201Cinstitutional adoption is just beginningu201D and that capital flows into bitcoin via these new financial products u201Cstructurally change the gameu201D.

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.