Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Bullish Rebound or Bearish Plunge in May 2025?

Will Bitcoin defy gravity or faceplant this month? The crypto kingpin’s chart paints a classic showdown between bulls and bears—with your portfolio caught in the crossfire.

Key levels to watch: A clean break above $75k could trigger FOMO-fueled rallies, while failure to hold $60k might invite the ’I told you so’ crowd from Wall Street. (Yes, those same suits who still think blockchain is a type of ski binding.)

Market whispers suggest institutional players are quietly accumulating—or is that just the sound of retail traders panic-selling? One thing’s certain: May’s volatility will separate the diamond hands from the paper-handed tourists.

In Brief

• Bitcoin is threatened by a possible global recession, expected this summer.
• Tariff negotiations between the United States and China in May are crucial to avoid a Bitcoin decline.
• In case of an agreement between Beijing and Washington, Bitcoin could rebound; otherwise, double-digit losses are possible.

Bitcoin Under Pressure: A Recession Looms Over May

While Bitcoin tests $97,000 and reaches 64.85% dominance, headwinds are on the horizon: recession. Indeed, a massive recession could hit BTC as early as this summer, fueled by a sharp drop in corporate profit outlooks, the most significant since 2020. In this context, the development of trade relations between the United States and China becomes crucial for investors.

The resumption of tariff discussions between Beijing and Washington could strongly influence Bitcoin’s price. To this end, the end of exemptions on certain Chinese imports (auto parts, small parcels under $800) could exacerbate trade tensions. And without an agreement this May, Bitcoin could record double-digit losses.

However, this extreme scenario remains unlikely. Both powers have no economic interest in slowing their trade. An agreement, or at least a compromise around a reciprocal 10% tariff, seems more realistic.

Threat or Opportunity?

Despite these recession risks, some experts see bullish potential. Bitcoin could first correct with risk assets before rebounding like in 2020. In a stagflation context, the crypto queen could even attract investors seeking protection against inflation, similar to gold.

However, its current strong correlation with technology stocks makes the outlook more uncertain. As do systemic risks linked to a global economic slowdown, which could heavily penalize speculative assets, Bitcoin included.

Bitcoin wavers as a major economic turning point approaches. Between recession fears and Sino-American trade tensions, its immediate future remains uncertain. Markets are closely watching tariff negotiations, the outcome of which could either revive BTC to its highs or precipitate a sharp decline. May promises to be decisive.

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