XRP ETF Approval at 85% Odds—Wall Street’s Late Bet on Crypto Finally Pays Off?

Bloomberg analysts slap an 85% probability on an XRP ETF greenlight by 2025—just as traditional finance scrambles to catch the wave it spent years dismissing.

Why now? Regulatory clarity and institutional FOMO override legacy skepticism. The SEC’s grudging evolution from ’crypto is a scam’ to ’fine, but only if we control it’ sets the stage.

XRP’s legal wins against the SEC turbocharge the case. Ripple’s partial victory in 2023 gave Wall Street the compliance fig leaf it needed to justify jumping in.

Cynical take: Banks spent a decade fighting crypto—now they’ll charge you 2% fees to ’democratize access’ to the ETF they tried to kill.

In Brief

• The chances of approval for a spot ETF based on XRP have jumped to 85%, according to Bloomberg analysts.
• This development follows a leadership change at the SEC, seen as more favorable to cryptos.
• On the Polymarket platform, probabilities of approval before the end of 2025 rose from 63% to 80% within a week.
• Specialized traders see in this context a bullish opportunity, supported by favorable technical signals.

Towards an XRP ETF? The SEC Faces Increasing Pressure

According to Bloomberg analysts, the probability rate that an XRP ETF will be approved in 2025 now reaches 85%. This figure marks a significant increase from the 65% estimate made two months earlier. Eric Balchunas, senior analyst at Bloomberg, states:

The leadership change at the SEC has completely changed the game.

Following this, several renowned asset managers such as Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and Franklin Templeton have submitted their proposals to launch a spot ETF based on XRP.

These initiatives still face administrative delays, but the signals converge towards a possible shift. Here are the key elements supporting this hypothesis:

• 85% probability of approval in 2025 according to Bloomberg, compared to 65% previously;
• Six major issuers have already submitted requests;
• The SEC has postponed its decision on the Franklin Templeton case to June 17;
• On Polymarket, the chances of approval before December 31 have risen from 63% to 80% in one week, reflecting a radical change in market sentiment.

For investors and sector observers, the approval of a spot ETF on XRP would not only be a regulatory milestone. It would mark a symbolic step in the normalization of the asset, long held back by its legal entanglements with the SEC.

Technical Analysis and Traders’ Views: Is XRP on the Path to New Highs?

While eyes are fixed on Washington, technical analysts closely watch the XRP price on the market. Indeed, the crypto is currently trading within a “falling wedge”, a bullish chart pattern. “This pullback is technically perfect,” declares trader Allincrypto on April 30 on the social network X (formerly Twitter).

He sees in this setup a clear signal of bullish recovery. Thus, he even anticipates a target of $19.27, a complete break from current levels NEAR $2.23.

For his part, trader Dark Defender envisions an Elliott wave scenario, as he believes the current correction fits into a bullish continuation dynamic toward new highs. “XRP continues its ascent toward the peak,” he summarizes in a statement published on platform X on April 27.

Moreover, indicators indeed seem to support this hypothesis. The RSI remains above the midline, a sign of favorable momentum. However, a sustained rebound assumes that the support at $2.20 holds and that the resistances between $2.80 and $3.00 are crossed. A break above the upper line of the wedge, currently estimated at $2.40, could open the way to a return to the former highs of $3.74, or even beyond.

If this momentum is confirmed, it could mark a decisive turning point for XRP, which still carries the scars of its long dispute with the SEC. Approval of an ETF, coupled with strong technical signals, could attract significant flows and reposition the asset at the top of the crypto rankings. However, it will all depend on the regulatory timetable, the market’s short-term reaction… and Ripple‘s ability to capitalize on this momentum.

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