Ethereum Stalls Below Key Resistance—Will May 2025 Finally Deliver the Breakout?
Ethereum’s price action remains trapped in a tightening range—again. Traders eyeing that elusive bullish signal got another week of blue balls as ETH failed to close above $3,800 resistance.
The Setup: Daily charts show a textbook symmetrical triangle, but volume’s been anaemic since mid-April. Classic ’wait and see’ purgatory.
Make or Break: A decisive close above $4,100 would trigger algorithmic buy orders galore. Below $3,500? Cue the ’macro headwinds’ excuses from bagholders.
Funny how the ’world computer’ still trades like a tech stock—just with 10x the hopium and half the SEC scrutiny. Your move, whales.
In Brief
- Technical analysis: Ethereum trades around $1,800, consolidating below resistance at $1,850. Weekly rebound of +13% and rising volumes (+76%) indicate renewed interest. The long-term trend remains bullish, short-term momentum has turned positive, but medium-term trend remains bearish below $2,104. Momentum is recovering.
- Derivatives analysis: The derivatives market remains balanced: open interest stable, similar buy and sell flows (neutral CVD), and slightly positive funding. Liquidations are low, mostly on longs, reflecting a generally cautious stance.
- Forecasts: Maintaining above $1,471 would progressively target $1,875, $2,105, then $2,560. Conversely, a break below $1,723 would open a bearish scenario towards $1,370 or even $1,070. Liquidation zones around $1,870 and $1,700 will be decisive.
- Conclusion: Recent technical signals are encouraging, supported by renewed interest and improving momentum. However, without clear confirmation at key levels, the market remains in a holding pattern.
ETH/USD Technical Analysis
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Spot Price | $1,800 | Consolidation below $1,850; technical threshold to watch for bullish continuation. |
| Latest Weekly Changes | + 13% | Engaging technical rebound. Strongest weekly gain since early November 2024. |
| Latest Weekly Volumes | 14.6 B (+76%) | Significant activity rebound, consistent with momentum recovery. |
| Long-term trend (200 SMA) | Bullish | Unchanged trend, supporting a positive long-term bias. |
| Medium-term trend (50 SMA) | Bearish | Still bearish despite ongoing correction. Crossing $2,104 required to confirm reversal. |
| Short-term trend (20 SMA) | Bullish | Bulls resuming control after brief consolidation. |
| Momentum | Rebound | Recovery of bullish momentum, supported by oscillators. |
| Resistance | $2,105 / $2,556 | Critical zones, potential distribution thresholds. |
| Support | $1,470 / $1,380 | Major defense levels, probable accumulation zones. |
| Value Area | $1,650 / $3,325 | Likely liquidity and market balance band. |
| Market Sentiment (Fear & Greed Index) | Greed | Euphoric sentiment confirming return of risk appetite. |
| ETH Spot ETF Flows (net flows) | Moderate inflows | Net inflows suggest sustained but moderate institutional interest. |
The ETH price trades at $1,800, consolidating below the key resistance of $1,850, a level to break to validate further bullish continuation. The weekly performance of +13%, accompanied by a volume jump (+76%), confirms a solid technical rebound. The long-term trend remains bullish (200 SMA), while the medium-term trend (50 SMA) stays bearish, with a reversal expected above $2,104. In the short term, buyers regain control (20 SMA).
Momentum is recovering, supported by oscillators. Major resistance zones are at $2,105 and $2,556, while critical supports stand at $1,470 and $1,380. market sentiment leans toward greed, signaling a return of risk appetite. Finally, moderate inflows into ETH spot ETFs confirm measured but present institutional support.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elyfe, investor and educator on the cryptocurrency market.
Derivatives Analysis (ETH/USDT)
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Open interest | Stable | Stable speculative activity without visible conviction. |
| CVD | Balanced flows | Buy and sell flows balanced. |
| Liquidation | Low, on longs | Low dominance of long liquidations, favoring shorts. |
| Funding rate | Neutral | Bullish positioning but not extreme; no overheating. |
On the derivatives markets side, open interest remains stable, reflecting a lack of strong conviction from speculators. The CVD (cumulative volume delta) shows balanced buy and sell flows, confirming no dominant direction. Liquidations are low on long positions, indicating moderate selling pressure. Finally, the funding rate is neutral, revealing a slightly bullish position without excess, hence no immediate risk of a harsh reversal.
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Seller liquidation zone | ≈ $1,870 / $2,120 & $2,875 | Critical zones in case of breakout, risk of bullish amplification. |
| Buyer liquidation zone | ≈ $1,730 / $1,700 – $1,600 & $1,500. | Critical downside thresholds, potential flush zones. |
Seller liquidation zones around $1,870, $2,120, and $2,875 may generate bullish accelerations if breached but also serve as potential distribution zones if the market shows signs of exhaustion. On the buyer side, thresholds at $1,730, $1,700, $1,600, and $1,500 are exposed to flush risk if broken but also offer absorption or institutional accumulation opportunities for medium-term repositioning.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Forecasts
Bullish Scenario:
- Conditions: Maintaining above $1,471.
- Targets: $1,875 / $2,042 / $2,105 / $2,330 – $2,560.
- Potential: About +42% from current level.
Bearish Scenario:
- Conditions: Break of support at $1,723.
- Targets: $1,471 / $1,370 / $1,150 / $1,070.
- Potential: Decline could reach -40%.
Comment:
The bias remains neutral to bearish for now, awaiting a clear reversal signal. Upcoming macroeconomic indicators (US GDP, PCE) could be decisive in validating or invalidating this scenario.
ETHUSD chart by TradingViewConclusion
Ethereum shows encouraging technical signals, supported by renewed activity and a more constructive market sentiment. However, without clear validation at key levels, caution remains warranted. The market is in a balanced phase, where reactions at sensitive zones will guide confirmation or invalidation of the current bias. In this context, closely monitoring price reactions at strategic levels will be essential to confirm or adjust current forecasts.
Finally, remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and cryptocurrency prices can move rapidly due to other more fundamental factors.
Did you find this study interesting? Check out our latest Bitcoin analysis.
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