Bitcoin Investors Brace for Volatility as Key US Economic Reports Loom

All eyes on CPI and jobs data—traditional markets tremble, crypto traders sharpen their knives.

Will the Fed’s favorite metrics trigger a BTC breakout or another ’macro-induced’ rug pull? Spoiler: Wall Street will profit either way.

In brief

• Bitcoin records an increase of more than 10 % in one week, driven by massive purchases on the spot market.
• Support from spot Bitcoin ETFs, notably 21Shares and Coinbase, has strengthened the bullish momentum.
• The crypto market is now awaiting the release of several major US economic indicators.
• Bitcoin could enter a consolidation phase if economic data disappoint expectations.

The rally drivers : between massive buying and ETF momentum

After several weeks of volatility, bitcoin has started a strong rebound, driven by a series of positive announcements on the institutional Flow front. Bitcoin’s rise could falter if spot buying volumes sharply decrease.

Such a situation could highlight how much the recent ascent is related to massive purchases on the spot market. Among the identified catalysts are notably :

• A massive purchase by Strategy, worth 1.42 billion dollars of bitcoin ;
• Continuous support from spot Bitcoin ETFs, notably carried by 21Shares and Coinbase ;
• Sustained demand on the spot market, favored by the absence of recent negative macroeconomic announcements.

These elements allowed bitcoin to reach 95,700 dollars, reconnecting with its highest levels in several weeks.

The rise relied on an exceptionally favorable environment, marked by a strong renewed interest in risky assets. However, a quiet week on the crypto news front could result in reduced spot demand.

In the absence of new positive catalysts, buying pressure could weaken, exposing bitcoin to critical tests below 93,000 dollars.

The impact of US economic data : between caution and consolidation

While bitcoin is currently trading in a tight range from 93,000 to 95,500 dollars, attention is now focused on a series of decisive macroeconomic releases for the immediate market evolution.

Starting April 29, investors will scrutinize the JOLTS report, which will measure job openings and hiring trends in the United States. This data could provide “an insight into how the trade war and tariffs led by the United States are digested by the labor market”, a key element in assessing economic strength.

The next day, the release of the CORE PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, will be particularly watched to gauge the future trajectory of US monetary policy.

Then, on May 1st, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will add another layer of information on the state of the already fragile US industrial economy due to trade tensions. Markets could react negatively if the report shows further deterioration of the ISM PMI, reflecting the prevailing nervousness.

Finally, the official employment report, expected on May 2, could confirm or disprove the thesis of a marked economic slowdown. If these indicators disappoint, they would reinforce investors’ cautious trend, triggering a partial disengagement from risky assets like bitcoin.

Faced with this high-risk sequence, bitcoin could continue to consolidate around its current levels unless there is a favorable surprise in the economic data. In case of negative confirmations, the initiated bullish momentum could be seriously compromised, making way for increased volatility. Conversely, better figures could provide a breath of fresh air to the market, allowing for a new test of 95,700 dollars or more.

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