Santiment’s Warning: Market Not Scared Enough For A Rebound

Fear's missing. That's the unnerving take from Santiment's latest analysis.

Where's The Panic?

For a tradable bottom to form, the herd usually needs to be running for the exits. Capitulation. The kind of fear you can smell through the screen. Santiment's data suggests we're not there yet. Sentiment isn't washed out; it's just... grumpy. That lingering, stubborn hope might be the very thing blocking a clean rebound.

The Contrarian Signal

In crypto, extreme fear often signals a buying opportunity. When everyone's certain it's going to zero, that's when the smart money starts stacking sats. The current mood? It's more cautious pessimism than outright terror. Traders are annoyed, not annihilated. That lack of sheer panic, according to the data, means the market might need to shake out more weak hands before the next leg up.

Waiting for the Flush

Real rebounds aren't built on ambivalence. They're built on the ashes of blown-out margin positions and shattered narratives. Until the charts reflect true despair—the kind that makes finance bros quietly update their LinkedIn profiles to 'Web3 consultant'—the path of least resistance might still be down. The market needs a cleaner reset. A final, fearful flush.

In brief

• Bitcoin continues its decline without causing visible panic in the markets.
• According to Santiment, the absence of extreme fear suggests the market has not yet hit bottom.
• Several indicators, including the Fear & Greed Index and the Altcoin Season Index, confirm an emotional climate that is still too moderate.
• Other factors, such as monetary policies or historical cycles, could alter the short-term trajectory.

Fear sentiment remains too low according to Santiment

According to Santiment, the current atmosphere on social media around cryptocurrencies does not reflect real panic, even as the US monetary tightening slows bitcoin’s progress.

Maksim Balashevich, founder of the platform, states that “the market is simply not scared enough yet” to suggest a true price floor. This analysis is based on observing messages posted on popular social channels, where latent Optimism is still detected.

“When people become irrationally bullish despite falling prices, it indicates the bottom has not yet been reached,” he explains. In other words, the absence of fear signals that investor capitulation has not yet occurred.

Several key indicators support this market reading :

• The Fear & Greed Index has stayed for a long time in the “extreme fear” zone, with a score near 20, signaling a fragile but not desperate sentiment ;

• The Altcoin Season Index shows a clear preference for bitcoin, which is interpreted as a retreat to safer assets ;

• Interaction volumes on social networks do not show an explosion of panic, but rather a form of resilience that intrigues analysts;

• The absence of dominant capitulation rhetoric on major forums and channels suggests that investors have not yet given in to total fear, a condition generally observed at historic lows.

These elements confirm Santiment’s thesis. As long as the market remains in an emotional in-between, without real fear or euphoria, the scenario of a sustained recovery seems premature.

A bearish pressure settles despite the hope of some analysts

Beyond sentiment indicators, Santiment foresees a continuation of bitcoin’s decline if the emotional climate does not clearly shift towards fear.

Maksim Balashevich estimates that the crypto could drop back down to around $75,000, which would represent a decline of nearly 15 % from its current level. This scenario is based on the belief that without an emotional purge of the market, no healthy recovery can emerge. “For a solid bottom to be reached, there must be intense, visible, and widespread fear,” the analyst argues.

Other experts offer a more nuanced view. Some, like Fidelity strategist Jurrien Timmer, remind that previous cycles have often seen a gradual recovery despite a still gloomy sentiment.

Others observe macroeconomic dynamics, such as recent decisions by the Bank of Japan, which could indirectly impact the crypto market by altering global liquidity flows. These differing interpretations illustrate the current uncertainty and strengthen the idea that the market is evolving in a transition zone rather than at a decisive moment.

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