Bitcoin Under Pressure In Global Risk-Off Shift: The 2025 Stress Test

Bitcoin's facing its first real stress test of 2025—and the pressure's on.

The Flight to Safety Is Real

When global markets get the jitters, capital doesn't just walk—it sprints. The 'risk-off' shift isn't a gentle breeze; it's a gale-force wind ripping through every speculative corner of finance. And right now, Bitcoin's standing directly in its path. The narrative that crypto acts as a digital gold or an uncorrelated asset gets put through the wringer during moments like these. Spoiler: it's rarely the pretty, polished version that survives.

Pressure Points and Pivot Moments

This isn't about a single bad headline. It's the cumulative weight of geopolitical tension, hawkish central bank whispers, and that old-fashioned fear that maybe, just maybe, the party's been going a bit too long. Liquidity gets thin. Leverage gets unwound. The 'number go up' machine grinds into a lower gear. For Bitcoin, pressure manifests in the order books—bids vanish, volatility spikes, and every trader starts watching a different set of lines on their chart.

The Cynical Take (You Knew It Was Coming)

Let's be honest—the traditional finance crowd loves this. Nothing brings a smug smile to a portfolio manager's face faster than watching 'that internet money' get a reality check from the same cold, hard risk calculus that governs everything else. It's the ultimate 'I told you so' moment, conveniently ignoring their own funds' redemptions and plunging NAVs. The hypocrisy is almost as volatile as the asset they're mocking.

So where does that leave us? At a crossroads. This pressure either forges a more resilient market structure... or exposes the cracks. Bitcoin's next move won't just be a price change—it'll be a statement.

In Brief

• Bitcoin struggles to exceed $92,000 in a global economic climate marked by risk aversion.
• Uncertainty surrounding a possible rate cut by the Fed weighs on markets and limits momentum in speculative assets.
• In the United States, declining consumption fuels growth worries and negatively impacts the crypto market.
• Bitcoin’s momentum is weakened by an uncertain global environment, marked by economic slowdown and monetary wait-and-see.

The Shadow of the Fed : Disappointed Expectations

For several weeks, Bitcoin has failed to regain the upper hand, unable to sustainably break above the $92,000 mark. This inertia is largely explained by the decline in expectations of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the January 2026 FOMC meeting has fallen to 22 %, down from 24 % the previous week. Despite clear signals favoring a shift in monetary tone, traders remain increasingly uncertain about the Fed’s ability to bring rates below 3.5 % by 2026.

This uncertainty is reinforced by a tense political and administrative context. Indeed, 43 days of government shutdown prevented the release of key economic statistics, further clouding short-term prospects.

Added to this are a series of technical and behavioral factors that hinder bitcoin’s progress. Among the key identified factors are :

• The continued reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet in 2025, which limits available liquidity in markets and negatively affects speculative assets like bitcoin ;

• A strong renewed appetite for US Treasury bonds, whose 10-year yield remains stable at 4.15 %, indicating investors’ preference for safe-haven assets ;

• An increasing decoupling between bitcoin and equity markets, notably the S&P 500, which remains less than 1.5 % below its historical highs, whereas bitcoin stagnates at 30 % below its October peak ;

• The dominance of gold as a hedging asset, despite bitcoin’s decentralized nature.

These combined elements signify a market shift towards a defensive posture. Bitcoin, long seen as a performance relay in an inflationary environment, now seems relegated behind more traditional assets, in a context of a marked return of risk aversion.

A Global Economy Losing Momentum

Beyond American monetary dynamics, it is a series of often secondary global macroeconomic signals that seems to gradually erode confidence in bitcoin as a short-term investment asset.

In the United States, consumption, a central pillar of the economy, shows signs of weakness. Iconic companies like Target and Macy’s have downgraded their outlooks for the fourth quarter, warning of the impact of inflation on their margins.

Also, Nike announced a drop in its quarterly sales on December 18, triggering a 10 % plunge in its stock. These data confirm a slowdown in household spending, an environment historically unfavorable to assets considered speculative. A drop in consumer spending traditionally creates a bearish climate for risk assets.

Moreover, nervousness is not limited to US borders. Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, reported a 2.3 % contraction in its GDP on an annualized basis in the third quarter. This disappointing performance comes despite interest rates remaining negative for over a decade and a currency depreciation policy intended to stimulate activity.

The Japanese bond market also sends an alarm signal: 10-year yields have crossed 2 % for the first time since 1999. This tension on Japanese debt increases the risk of global contagion in already pressured financial markets. In this context, bitcoin’s decreasing correlation with traditional markets, often seen as an advantage, becomes a weakness. It means bitcoin no longer necessarily benefits from the momentum of other assets while remaining exposed to the same risk aversion.

The Bitcoin price remains trapped in a climate of uncertainty where every macroeconomic signal redraws the contours of the market. Without a clear catalyst, crypto struggles to regain its momentum, oscillating according to rate expectations and institutional flows. Caution is necessary as long as the global monetary direction remains so unclear.

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