Ethereum’s Valuation Could Reach $20 Trillion by 2035, Analyst Projects

Forget "digital gold"—Ethereum's aiming for the entire vault. One analyst's projection puts the network's market cap at a staggering $20 trillion within a decade. That's not just growth; it's a complete reimagining of global value.

The Engine of Everything

The thesis hinges on Ethereum becoming the foundational settlement layer for... well, everything. From decentralized finance and tokenized real-world assets to corporate treasuries and sovereign digital currencies. The network isn't just hosting applications; it's poised to become the backbone of a new financial system. Every smart contract executed, every asset tokenized, every transaction settled—it all feeds the valuation engine.

A $20 Trillion Reality Check

Hitting that number means Ethereum's market cap would need to multiply roughly forty-fold from current levels. It's an audacious target that would require mass institutional adoption moving from pilot programs to core infrastructure. Skeptics will rightly point to scaling hurdles, regulatory fog, and the sheer gravitational pull of legacy finance—which has a habit of co-opting innovation, not being replaced by it. After all, Wall Street loves a disruptive technology it can eventually charge fees on.

The path isn't guaranteed, but the ambition is clear. Ethereum isn't fighting for a slice of the existing pie; it's building a new kitchen. Whether it serves up a $20 trillion feast by 2035 remains the ultimate bet on an open, programmable future.

In Brief

• William Mougayar projects Ethereum’s economic value could eventually reach trillions despite temporary price swings.
• Current intrinsic value of Ethereum is placed between $2 trillion and $6 trillion, with conservative estimates near $1 trillion and potential growth to $10–$20 trillion by 2035.
• Early signs of trading recovery appear as taker activity on Binance improves, suggesting renewed upward momentum may be possible in the short term.

Rethinking Ethereum’s Value

Mougayar’s report highlights that ethereum is often assessed using models designed for traditional technology companies that generate profits. He suggests viewing ETH as a public good, similar to the core protocols that support the internet, such as TCP/IP. This misalignment, he argues, causes markets to misprice Ethereum, since its true value arises from shared benefits, open access, and collective usage rather than conventional revenue streams.

He further explained that most attempts to value Ethereum since its inception have relied on narrow and misleading frameworks. Common approaches—such as revenue-based analysis, discounted cash flow models, fee-focused economic assumptions, and token supply comparisons—fail to reflect the network’s actual nature. Ethereum is neither a company nor a profit-driven platform, and Mougayar stresses that its true value can only be understood by viewing ETH as a public good.

A Layered Approach to Valuation

The report introduces a valuation model that separates Ethereum’s total worth into three layers often overlooked by conventional metrics. The first LAYER captures value already recognized by the market, including Ethereum itself, Layer-2 solutions, and major decentralized finance (DeFi) assets, with a combined estimate of $0.6 trillion to $0.9 trillion.

The second layer assesses the economic activity dependent on Ethereum, covering stablecoin transactions, tokenized assets, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and broader DeFi applications, with potential value ranging from $300 billion to $3 trillion. The final layer considers the less tangible benefits provided by the network, such as reduced risk, fewer intermediaries, and lower fraud exposure, which are estimated between $150 billion and $600 billion.

Applying this three-tiered framework, Mougayar places Ethereum’s current intrinsic value between $2 trillion and $6 trillion, while a conservative estimate puts it NEAR $1 trillion today. Looking further ahead, if Ethereum grows into a global trust and settlement network akin to the internet’s foundational role, its valuation could reach $10 trillion to $20 trillion by 2035.

Under a very-high scenario, if Ethereum reaches “Internet-level public good” scale, around 2030-2035, we can map Ethereum’s place on an analogous curve. This yields a plausible upper bound of $10–20 trillion, assuming Ethereum becomes the “trust & settlement layer of the global economy” by 2035.

Early Signs of Recovery in Ethereum Trading

While Ethereum’s longer-term prospects appear strong, its present-day price remains under pressure. Analysts have noted early indications of a rebound. Maartunn from CryptoQuant pointed to improved taker activity on Binance, with Net Taker Volume recovering to –$138 million from a low of –$500 million during heavy selling in late October. 

Although still negative, this increase suggests that taker buyers are returning, hinting at the possibility of renewed upward momentum for Ethereum in the near term.

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