ETF Hype, Derivatives Pressure, and Capitulation Fears: Bitcoin’s Familiar Downward Spiral Returns

Bitcoin's price action is tracing a pattern veteran traders know all too well—a cocktail of institutional products, leveraged bets, and panic selling that sends the digital asset spiraling.

The ETF Double-Edged Sword

Spot Bitcoin ETFs brought Wall Street capital and legitimacy, but they also introduced a new layer of speculative pressure. Massive inflows can pump the price; sudden outflows or stagnation create a vacuum. Right now, that vacuum is pulling prices lower as traditional finance's 'hot money' gets cold feet.

Derivatives Domino Effect

The real turbulence often starts in the derivatives markets. Over-leveraged long positions get liquidated en masse when support levels break, triggering a cascade of automated selling. This isn't organic selling—it's the market's plumbing violently flushing out excess risk, and it accelerates every dip into a plunge.

The Capitulation Clock

'Capitulation' is the final, ugly stage where weak hands surrender. It's marked by panic, high volume, and a sentiment trough so deep it feels permanent. It's also, historically, the precursor to a new cycle. The question isn't if it will happen, but whether this current washout is the real deal or just a dress rehearsal.

For all the talk of 'digital gold' and 'store of value,' Bitcoin remains the world's most volatile major asset—a fact that somehow still surprises the suits who treat it like just another ticker on their Bloomberg terminal. The spiral is familiar because human psychology, greed, and fear are the oldest markets of all.

In brief

• Bitcoin is stuck between $96K and $106K, a critical threshold according to Glassnode’s analysis.
• ETFs register 6 weeks of withdrawals, with more than $2.7 billion withdrawn.
• Derivatives show low volatility, reflecting a cautious market without speculative leverage.
• Spot activity slows on major platforms, leaving the crypto market without solid support.

The $96K–$106K zone, last bastion of a pressured bitcoin

Since mid-November, the price of bitcoin has fallen below the 0.75 quantile band, a zone Glassnode analysts consider critical. Concretely, this means that more than 25% of the circulating supply is now at an unrealized loss. This same signal had marked the start of the big crypto winter in 2022. Needless to say, the market is no longer joking.

Glassnode drills down:

The price briefly stabilized above the True Market Mean, but the overall structure closely resembles that of Q1 2022: more than 25% of the supply is currently at a loss, realized losses are increasing, and sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks is heightened.

Meanwhile, the IBIT ETF records its sixth consecutive week of net outflows. This represents more than $2.7 billion in withdrawals. And altcoins? No better. Ether follows the same trajectory, struggling to stay above $4,800. Solana, for its part, shows obvious exhaustion after its autumn flash rally. The whole crypto market is stalling.

Derivatives: when crypto traders sell hope before it is born

On the derivatives side, the observation is clear: it is the reign of caution. Open interest on futures contracts plunged in November. Implied volatility is in free fall: from 57% to 48% on short contracts. And the funding? Almost neutral. The message is clear: no leverage, no thrills.

In its report, Glassnode notes:

This neutral to slightly negative funding structure indicates a more balanced derivatives market where the absence of overloaded long positions reduces downside fragility. It could even prepare the ground for more constructive positions if demand stabilizes.

The options market reflects the same retreat. Rather than betting on a bullish explosion, traders are selling calls. The $100K level remains a mirage: premiums sold at this strike far exceed premiums bought. The desire to break the ceiling? On hold.

In this atmosphere, altcoins are no exception. Even Leveraged pairs trade sluggishly. A year ago, the crypto ecosystem vibrated at every announcement. Today, it is flat calm, or rather, the calm before the storm?

Crypto Market: towards generalized inertia?

Off-chain signals are hardly more reassuring. The Cumulative Volume Delta is in negative territory on Binance, proof that buyers no longer have control. Even Coinbase, a traditional barometer of US appetite, no longer emits positive signals.

And yet, some long-term investors continue to take profits. The SOPR ratio at 1.43 shows they are still selling with a margin. But this margin is eroding. As in 2022. It seems the crypto market is playing a tune already heard.

The entire sector finds itself caught between two waters: weakened fundamentals, faded enthusiasm, and volatility trapped in a narrow mold. Buyers have no reason to rush. Sellers await a macro trigger. Everyone waits. And that is precisely the most worrying.

The 5 weak signals flashing

• The current price of bitcoin is $91,329, down since the summer peak;
• 7.1 million BTC are currently held at a loss, an unprecedented level since September 2023;
• 6 consecutive weeks of withdrawals on the IBIT ETF (more than $2.7 billion withdrawn);
• Implied volatility on BTC options has dropped nearly 10% in 10 days;
• Spot volume is in continuous decline on Coinbase, Binance and other major platforms.

As if that were not enough, the bitcoin profitability indicator has just reached a low point unseen since 2023. A threshold not crossed for more than two years. A reminder that, in this stagnation phase, even the psychological resistance of holders is beginning to erode. A detail? No. One more signal that the crypto market could be on the verge of a new prolonged decompression phase.

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