Bitcoin Strategy Stumbles, But Cantor’s Bullish Bet Remains Unshaken

Bitcoin's latest tactical pivot just hit a wall. The digital gold rush strategy that promised outsized returns has faltered, leaving analysts scrambling. Yet, amid the tactical wreckage, one major voice isn't backing down.

Cantor's Unwavering Conviction

Cantor Fitzgerald, the financial heavyweight with deep institutional roots, is holding its ground. While the market digests the strategy's short-term failure, their long-term thesis for Bitcoin remains intact. It's a classic Wall Street move—look past the quarterly noise and focus on the decade-long trend.

The Strategy vs. The Story

Here's the rub: a single investment framework can fail while the underlying asset's narrative grows stronger. Bitcoin isn't just a trade; it's a technological and monetary paradigm shift. Cantor seems to understand that distinction, separating a flawed execution plan from the fundamental value proposition of a decentralized, finite digital asset. It's the difference between betting on a single horse and believing in the future of the entire racetrack.

Institutions: Slow to Move, Hard to Shake

When giants like Cantor plant a flag, they rarely pull it up after the first storm. Their continued belief signals a deeper institutional assessment that transcends daily price action and trading algorithms. It suggests they see cracks in the traditional financial system that Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to fill—regardless of which specific 'strategy' is currently in vogue. After all, what's one more failed forecast in an industry built on them?

So, while a popular Bitcoin strategy takes a dive, the conviction from key financial players runs deeper than any single playbook. Sometimes, the smartest money isn't the fastest—it's the most stubborn.

In brief

• Cantor Fitzgerald reduces its price target for Strategy (MSTR) by 60%, from $560 to $229.
• Strategy has $1.44 billion in cash, enough to cover its dividends for 21 months, limiting the risks of forced sales of its 650,000 bitcoins.
• Bitcoin remains decisive: its price movement will determine MSTR’s valuation and the outcome of risks related to exclusion from MSCI indices.

Cantor Fitzgerald halves its target for Strategy

Cantor Fitzgerald has shaken the markets by lowering its price target for Strategy from $560 to $229, a drop of 60%. A rare decision, even in as volatile a sector as crypto. This revision comes as Strategy’s (MSTR) stock has lost 35% since the beginning of the year and 27% in the last month. With a market cap of $53 billion, the company holds over 650,000 bitcoins, valued at about $55.7 billion at the current price.

This 60% cut by Cantor Fitzgerald on MSTR is partly explained by bitcoin’s price falling from $126,000 in October to about $86,000 in early December 2025. Worse yet, Strategy faces a major regulatory risk. MSCI is considering excluding companies with more than 50% of assets in crypto. This decision could trigger forced sales of MSTR worth $2.8 billion.

Strategy: why Cantor remains optimistic despite everything 

Despite the drastic revision of its price target, Cantor Fitzgerald maintains an optimistic view on Strategy. The bank highlights several key strengths of the company, notably:

• The $1.44 billion cash reserve, raised in fiat currency and not in bitcoin;
• The ability to issue new shares to fund itself, reducing the risk of forced sales of its BTC holdings;
• The “leveraged bitcoin beta” of Strategy, a stock whose valuation almost entirely depends on bitcoin’s price.

Furthermore, Cantor Fitzgerald notes that liquidation fears would only be justified in an extreme Bitcoin crash, with a 90% drop! A scenario analysts at the bank consider unlikely. Moreover, the bank views the recent correction as a healthy consolidation phase, necessary before a sustainable recovery.

Bitcoin: how its price dictates market decisions

Bitcoin’s price plays a central role in stock valuations, and Strategy is a perfect example. The correlation between BTC and MSTR prices is striking: when bitcoin falls, MSTR collapses. In November 2025, record outflows of $3.6 billion from bitcoin ETFs accelerated the decline of MSTR and the entire crypto sector. This dynamic shows how much bitcoin influences investors’ and analysts’ decisions.

Additionally, analysts’ decisions and indices like MSCI are directly influenced by bitcoin’s volatility. Therefore, a price recovery above $100,000 could revive MSTR and ease regulatory fears. Conversely, another decline WOULD worsen pressure on Strategy and speed up its exclusion from indices.

Cantor Fitzgerald sent a clear message: Michael Saylor’s company is not in immediate danger, but its future remains closely tied to bitcoin’s. Between strong liquidity and regulatory risks, the company embodies the challenges and opportunities of a maturing crypto market. And you, would you be ready to bet on Strategy despite the uncertainties?

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