Bitcoin Scarcity Index Surges for First Time Since June—BTC Price Primed for Major Upside Move

Bitcoin's scarcity just hit a critical inflection point—and the market's taking notice.

The Bitcoin Scarcity Index just posted its first meaningful jump since June, signaling tightening supply conditions that historically precede significant price appreciation. This isn't just technical noise—it's the fundamental supply squeeze that Bitcoin maximalists have been waiting for.

Supply mechanics meet market momentum

When scarcity metrics accelerate, available Bitcoin supply contracts. Fewer coins changing hands means less selling pressure and more potential for explosive upside moves. The last time these conditions aligned? Let's just say holders enjoyed the ride.

Timing the tidal wave

This scarcity surge coincides with institutional adoption hitting new highs and traditional finance finally acknowledging what crypto natives knew years ago. Meanwhile, traditional assets keep offering negative real returns—because nothing says 'sound investment' like watching your purchasing power evaporate through inflation.

Market structure suggests we're not just looking at another minor rally—this could be the setup for the next major leg up. When Bitcoin gets scarce, prices tend to get interesting.

The BTC price is drawing attention after the Bitcoin Scarcity Index on Binance has once again recorded its first spike since June, which strongly suggests renewed buying pressure. 

With BTC price today hovering NEAR $114855, the sudden shift in scarcity has raised questions about whether a fresh accumulation phase could be underway that could send BTC higher from the current price.

Scarcity Spike Signals Renewed Buying Pressure In Bitcoin Price

The most recent update comes from tracking an onchain metric “Bitcoin Scarcity Index“. This tracks the balance between immediate buying power and the available supply on exchanges. 

When the index rises sharply, it typically signals that either sell orders have declined or large investors are withdrawing Bitcoin from the platform. 

This week’s jump suggests that demand has suddenly exceeded supply, which gives a hint at the entry of whales and institutions.

Notably, a similar spike last June preceded a strong rally that pushed the Bitcoin price chart toward the $124,000 region. 

That said, if the current MOVE sustains over several days, it could reflect the start of another accumulation phase. 

Institutional Accumulation Strengthens Bullish Case

Adding weight to the bullish narrative, Michael Saylor’s disclosure revealed today that 525 BTC were recently acquired by “Strategy” for approximately $60.2 million at an average price of $114,562 per Bitcoin. 

This purchase brought total holdings to 638,985 BTC, acquired for about $47.23 billion at an average price of $73,913 per coin, he said.

Such large-scale accumulation highlights growing institutional confidence aligning with CryptoQuant analysis and signals that significant players still view bitcoin crypto as a long-term store of value. 

Divergence Pattern Points to Macro Continuation

Amid the scarcity shift, the bitcoin price USD also triggered a hidden weekly bullish divergence on its technical chart.

This signals underlying strength in the broader trend. It suggests that while short-term sentiment may appear mixed, the macro cycle still leans toward continuation of the bullish trend.

Historically, Bitcoin has shown similar setups before significant rallies. If the divergence plays out, the BTC price forecast suggests that it could lean bullish heading into the final quarter of the year.

Cyclical Patterns Hint at Strong Fourth Quarter

Meanwhile, a separate analysis comparing historical market cycles noted that Bitcoin rallied 72% from October to December last year. 

Applying that same pattern to 2025 price action implies the possibility of BTC reaching near $200,000 before year-end if the rally repeats. 

$BTC chart honestly looks bad if you ignore the macro cycle.

Last year Oct–Dec = +72%.

Run that back in 2025 → ~$200K BTC before Christmas.

Disclosure: I don't make the rules. pic.twitter.com/w9KloZVv0T

While not guaranteed, this perspective adds to the growing market optimism surrounding the BTC price prediction for the coming months.