Altcoins Brace for ’Rektember’ – Will 2025 Defy the Bloodbath or Follow Tradition?

September looms like a guillotine over altcoin traders—will this year slash portfolios or spare them?

The Ghost of Septembers Past

History doesn’t whisper—it screams. Altcoins have bled out every September since 2020, with average drops hitting 30%. Ethereum got carved up last year. Solana got filleted the year before. The pattern’s so predictable, even Wall Street quants could spot it.

This Time It’s Different™

Except maybe it’s not. Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $12B this August—three times last year’s pace. Layer-2 tokens like ARB and OP just printed 90-day highs. ‘But liquidity!’ cry the permabears, ignoring that Tether’s market cap just ballooned to $110B. Classic finance bros still think ‘alt season’ means ordering a different craft beer.

The Cynic’s Hedge

Smart money’s already playing both sides—stacking stablecoins while loading up on volatility derivatives. Because nothing says ‘I believe in blockchain’ like betting against your own bags. One thing’s certain: come October, someone’s gonna need a new yacht… or a new job.

September has earned a dark nickname in the crypto world, “Rektember,” a month when digital asset prices often stumble. While past years have seen sharp declines, 2025 could bring either the same pain or a surprise twist. 

Dan from Coin Bureau believes unique global and market factors might change the pattern, but early signs of weakness still have traders on edge.

Why September is Historically Brutal for Altcoins

September has a bad reputation in the crypto world. History shows that during this month, the market often struggles, and altcoins usually take the biggest hit. They tend to fall faster because they’re more volatile and have less liquidity compared to Bitcoin.

Looking at the numbers, September has been one of Bitcoin’s weakest months historically. Out of the past 12 years, it closed in the red 8 times, with an average drop of around 3.77%.

If history repeats, traders should be ready, but also remember that the market today is not the same as before.

Signs the Cycle is Repeating

Right now, Bitcoin’s price is moving in a small range, while many altcoins are already losing some of their recent gains. If September plays out like before, altcoins could drop further.

Dan sees three main things that could change the market’s direction:

• Rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve – Cheaper borrowing could push investors toward riskier assets like crypto.

• Changes in trade tariffs – Easing trade tensions could make investors feel more confident.

• Big global events – Political tensions or peace deals could quickly shift market sentiment.

Dan also warns that fear can spread fast. If traders expect a crash, they may start selling early, and that selling itself could cause prices to fall.

Could This Year Be Different?

However, this year’s September might not be as brutal as past “Rektembers.” One reason is the growing role of institutional investors. With crypto ETFs now in the mix, some of the selling pressure could be absorbed, reducing panic in the market. 

Another factor is Bitcoin’s current price behavior, which is moving within a much tighter range than in previous cycles, showing caution rather than fear.

Meanwhile, as of now altcoin season index currently stands at 51, while to begin the alt season, altcoins need to cross 75.