3 Bullish Catalysts That Could Propel XRP to ETF Approval by October 2025

XRP’s path to an ETF just got clearer—and the timing couldn’t be more strategic. With regulatory winds shifting and institutional demand surging, here’s why October 2025 might be the magic moment.

Regulatory Green Lights: The SEC’s grudging acceptance of crypto ETFs has set a precedent. XRP’s legal clarity post-lawsuit makes it a prime candidate—Wall Street loves a clean slate.

Institutional Hunger: TradFi’s FOMO is real. After Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs raked in billions, asset managers won’t ignore the third-largest crypto by market cap for long.

Market Mechanics: XRP’s low volatility vs. other altcoins makes it an ETF issuer’s dream. Combine that with Ripple’s relentless ODL growth, and you’ve got a narrative even a cynical banker couldn’t ignore.

Of course, this assumes the SEC doesn’t invent new ways to ‘protect’ investors from making money. But hey—hope springs eternal in crypto.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing several applications for XRP-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). It is expected to announce its final decision on most of these applications by October 2025. But there are some factors that create a strong bullish environment that can improve the likelihood of XRP ETF approval soon. 

Three Bullish Reasons That Can Help with XRP ETF Approval

• Lawsuit Dismissal 

Ripple Labs and the SEC have officially agreed to dismiss the appeals filed in the legal battle, bringing the five-year dispute to an end. 

This agreement between the SEC and Ripple can remove a major obstacle from the path, as it directly influences the XRP ETF application approval. It will improve regulatory clarity, combined with XRP meeting updated SEC standards. With renewed confidence in Ripple’s future, market analysts now estimate the probability of XRP spot ETF approval as high as 95%. 

• Rail Acquisition

Ripple’s $200 million rail acquisition can indirectly help with the regulatory approval for an XRP ETF. This enhances the company’s overall regulatory profile and institutional appeal with compliance capability and enterprise-grade infrastructure. 

Ripple is also expanding its acquisition and partnership with banking and payment-focused firms like Bank of New York Mellon (BNY Mellon), which acts as the custodian of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin. Despite these advances, there is no explicit indication that these deals will directly or immediately lead to XRP ETF approval. 

• RealFi’s Institutional Launch

RealFi launched a tokenization platform on August 3, 2025, enabling the tokenization of assets like property, allowing for fractional ownership and trading via XRP and other tokens. Following the initial success with onboarding 3,000 users, RealFi is now launching the next phase. 

This can indirectly support the approval of an XRP ETF with practical large-scale use cases for XRP in institutional asset management. This strengthens XRP’s utility narrative, which could add confidence for regulators and institutional investors by showcasing XRP’s real-world application beyond speculation. 

Final Thought 

While the rail acquisition and RealFi’s institutional launch enhance XRP’s ecosystem and institutional credibility, it does not directly impact the SEC’s application. These three factors, however, boost confidence in the XRP ETF. Besides this, the global efforts, including ETF applications outside the US, can further reinforce long-term approval odds for XRP.