The Hidden Force Behind Bitcoin’s 2025 Rally—It’s Not Who You Expect

Bitcoin's latest surge defies conventional wisdom—no, it's not retail FOMO or Elon tweets this time. The real drivers? Institutional whales playing 4D chess while retail chases memecoins.

The stealth accumulation phase

Quiet money flooded in during Q2 2025 when Bitcoin dipped below $50K. Now those positions are being unwound with Wall Street precision—just as Main Street starts paying attention.

Liquidity games

Market makers are exploiting thin summer volumes to push BTC toward all-time highs. The kicker? Most exchanges' order books look suspiciously symmetrical these days.

This rally smells like a hedge fund's algorithmic playground—complete with over-leveraged traders getting liquidated for entertainment. The more things change...

Bitcoin has reached hit another all-time high. While the market appears strong, analysts and users are debating whether the traditional 4-year cycle theory still holds or if a new era, led by institutions and long-term holders, is taking shape.

For years, analyst Ki Young Ju followed a clear pattern: buying when whales (big players) accumulate, and selling when retail investors join in. However, he claims that this pattern was once a reliable indicator for market timing, and does not work anymore. 

#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.

My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.

Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we…

In the last bull run, whales were selling to retail. But this time, he points out that older whales are selling to newer, long-term holders. A lot of these new players are likely institutions. The institutional adoptions have been much bigger than what many had expected.

This time, it’s not just traders that are playing the game, holders have taken over. He notes that he was  applying the old cycle framework to a new kind of market. He adds that he called the bull cycle over too early, and did not fully recognize how much the structure had changed.

He also apologised for the ones impacted by his precious forecast and also commited that he will now focus on delivering more data-driven insights.

However users argue that it’s too early to declare the entire cycle theory dead. One of them notes that only the on-chain part is broken, mainly because so much activity now happens in TradFi, where data is harder to track. “We just don’t have full visibility,” he said. Another user said that the theory has not died, but simply evolved with long-term institutional players.

Institutional adoption has been the driving force behind this Bitcoin cycle.  Regulated funds and ETFs have bought over 900,000 BTC, way moe than what big whales are selling, which has helped keep the price steady. 

Cryptoquant analysts also note that the bitcoin rally is not due to retail hype, but institutions are leading the way. On-chain data shows retail investors have been selling since early 2023, with their BTC holdings steadily declining. In contrast, large wallets likely ETFs, funds, or institutions—started accumulating heavily in early 2024.

Google trends show that the interest in “Bitcoin” is still pretty low, with no retail FOMO, and HYPE like 2021. This means that there is still room for this rally to grow.

However, analyst Willy Woo says not to be fooled by the Google trends. He claims that people now already know Bitcoin and low search does not mean low demand.

Bitcoin reached yet another new all-time high, and has continued to follow its 4-year cycle very closely. pic.twitter.com/pbkJkHucLM

Nevetheless, Bitcoin has hit another all-time high and continues to closely following its historic 4-year cycle.

Bitcoin is down 2% today and is currently trading at $116,578. According to expert Benjamin Cowen, altcoins often rally through summer but expects money to FLOW back to Bitcoin by late August. With BTC dominance holding strong around 60%, he sees signs that Bitcoin could take the lead again soon.