Bitcoin Braces for CPI Shockwave—Sub-$100K Plunge or $105K Rebound?

All eyes on today’s US inflation data as BTC teeters on a knife’s edge. The crypto market holds its breath—will the Fed’s favorite economic indicator trigger a sell-off or send bulls charging back toward all-time highs?

CPI meets crypto: A volatility cocktail. Traders are already pricing in two scenarios: A hot print could vaporize $100K support, while a cooler number might fuel the rally’s next leg up. Either way, leverage positions will get liquidated faster than a Wall Street banker’s moral compass.

Technical outlook: The $102K level now acts as pivot point. Watch order book depth—thin liquidity means exaggerated moves. And remember: In crypto, ’macroeconomic data’ is just institutional code for ’excuse to hunt your stops.’

Soon after the US-China trade war eased and a 90-day pause came into effect, the crypto markets experienced massive relief from the bearish influence. The Bitcoin price surged past $100K and formed highs above $105K, which raised the possibility of the start token marking a new ATH. Meanwhile, the CPI data, which is expected to be released soon, has spread shock waves across the markets. The tokens, including Bitcoin, have been displaying huge volatility since the early trading hours and are experiencing a rise in selling pressure. 

In the times when the BTC price is just 6% away from its ATH, will it resume its upswing to form new highs?

The BTC price and the entire market are consolidating ahead of the data, as they do each time, but this has not remained for a long time. The Truflation shows 1.68% inflation, while the FED expects 2.4%. If in case, the CPI confirms the rates, then the crypto markets are expected to explode. This data is expected to show the first clear signs of inflationary impacts from President Trump’s tariffs. In such a scenario, the BTC price could probably rise above the corrective phase and reclaim the lost highs. 

The BTC chart is pointing towards the growing bullish influence on the token. Ever since the price has surged above the 200-day MA, the possibilities of a Golden Cross have been more prominent. On the other hand, the RSI has reached the upper threshold for the first time since November 2024. Just before this, the token underwent a Golden Cross, which resulted in a 60% upswing. Now that the technicals have reached similar levels, another bullish crossover between the 50/200-day MA could propel the BTC price towards new highs, probably beyond $115K. 

On the other hand, the CME gap between $91,970 and $92,730, which has formed recently, may raise some concerns, as the price has been addressing all the gaps lately. Therefore, the next rejection could be huge, which may drive the BTC price below this range, while the rebound may be based on the strength of the bulls, as the liquidity has already accumulated around this range. Hence, it would be interesting to watch the next course of action of the Bitcoin (BTC) price rally in May 2025.