Bitcoin’s $70,000 Support Test: CryptoQuant’s Bear Market Call Sparks Debate
Analytics firm CryptoQuant drops a bearish bombshell, putting Bitcoin's critical $70,000 support level in the crosshairs. The call for a confirmed downturn is shaking confidence and setting the stage for a major market inflection point.
The $70K Line in the Sand
All eyes are locked on that key psychological and technical zone. A sustained hold above it could deflate the bearish narrative, while a decisive break opens the door to uncharted downside territory. This isn't just a number—it's the battleground for market sentiment.
Decoding the Data Signal
CryptoQuant's analysis hinges on on-chain metrics and market structure, pointing to conditions that have historically preceded deeper corrections. The firm's data-driven approach cuts through the noise, offering a sobering counter-narrative to perpetual bullish optimism.
A Reality Check for the Faithful
This call forces a brutal reassessment. It challenges the 'buy the dip' mantra and questions whether recent volatility is a healthy reset or the start of a more profound trend reversal. For every trader betting on infinite growth, there's a chart whispering about mean reversion—the oldest, most cynical rule in finance.
The coming days will test resilience. Does Bitcoin defend its ground and prove the bears wrong, or does the data win? Strap in.
Bitcoin has entered a bear market as demand weakens and large investors reduce exposure, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant said on Thursday, warning prices could fall toward $70,000 or even $56,000 in the longer term.
CryptoQuant said Bitcoin demand growth has slipped below its long-term trend since early October, meaning the main drivers of this cycle have already played out. The firm pointed to three major demand waves since 2023, including the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the U.S. presidential election, and increased buying by corporate treasury firms.
“With demand growth now rolling over, a key source of price support has disappeared,” CryptoQuant said.
Institutional demand is also weakening. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs became net sellers in the fourth quarter of 2025, with holdings falling by about 24,000 bitcoins, compared with strong buying in late 2024. Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 bitcoins, a group that includes ETFs and treasury companies, are growing more slowly, a pattern last seen before the 2022 bear market.
Derivatives markets are also showing lower risk appetite. Funding rates for perpetual futures have dropped to their lowest levels since December 2023, indicating traders are less willing to hold long positions, a trend usually seen during bear markets.
Bitcoin’s price has also broken below its 365-day moving average, a technical level that has historically marked the shift between bull and bear markets.
CryptoQuant said bitcoin’s four-year cycle is driven mainly by changes in demand rather than by the halving event, which reduces supply. “Demand cycles — not halvings — drive bitcoin’s four-year cycle,” the firm said.
Despite the bearish outlook, CryptoQuant said the downturn could be relatively shallow by historical standards. Previous bear market lows have often aligned with bitcoin’s realized price, currently NEAR $56,000, implying a possible decline of around 55% from the recent record high. The firm sees intermediate support around $70,000.
