Altcoin Season Isn’t Dead—Top Traders Reveal the New Timeline for the Real Altcoin Rally

Forget the obituaries. The altcoin market isn't dead—it's just waiting for its cue.

While Bitcoin dominance commands headlines, seasoned traders are mapping the next rotation. The narrative has shifted from 'if' to 'when,' and the consensus points to a specific catalyst window. It's not about random pumps; it's about capital flowing down the risk curve after institutional giants secure their Bitcoin positions.

The Liquidity Domino Effect

History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. Major alt rallies typically ignite after Bitcoin consolidates near all-time highs, creating a stability anchor. This allows sidelined capital—the kind that's too nervous for BTC's volatility—to seek exponential returns elsewhere. The smart money isn't selling its Bitcoin; it's using it as collateral to fund altcoin positions. A classic case of having your cake and eating the speculative altcoin too.

Ecosystems, Not Just Tokens

The coming wave won't lift all boats equally. The focus has sharpened towards fundamental utility and real user adoption. Traders are scouting layer-1s with robust developer activity and layer-2s that actually solve scaling issues, not just promise to. The play is on ecosystems poised to capture the next wave of decentralized applications, making 'altcoin season' more of a 'fundamental season' in disguise. It's a welcome change from funding projects whose only roadmap was a meme and a marketing wallet.

The New Timeline Emerges

So, when does the music start? Analysis points to a window opening after the next major Bitcoin ETF inflow cycle concludes, suggesting a pivot point in the coming quarters. This isn't a date on a calendar but a phase in a market cycle—one where patience becomes the ultimate altcoin strategy. The rally will be led by projects with clear metrics, not just catchy tickers. After all, in a market maturing faster than a fintech startup's burn rate, narrative alone is a currency that devalues quickly.

The countdown is quiet, but it's ticking. The real altcoin rally isn't dead; it's just waiting for Wall Street to finish its Bitcoin shopping spree first.

Crypto investors have been growing impatient as altcoins continue to lag behind Bitcoin. For months, crypto traders have been asking the same question: Is altcoin season dead, or just delayed? According to several well-known market experts, the Altcoin season may not be gone at all, it simply hasn’t started yet.

Here’s when the altcoin season is going to start.

Why Altcoin Season Has Been Delayed

Raoul Pal, a prominent macro investor, says the biggest mistake investors are making is assuming the old four-year cycle to repeat. 

According to him, debt maturity was extended during 2021–2022, which quietly stretched the cycle by roughly one year. This change reduced liquidity in the expected “banana zone,” delaying the usual altcoin rally.

Because of this delay, Pal believes the 4-year crypto cycle has stretched into a five-year structure. In his view, the key economic indicator to watch is the ISM index. Historically, when ISM rises above 50, strong rallies in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and later altcoins tend to follow.

When Could Altcoin Season Start?

Speaking directly about when the altcoin season could arrive, Pal said;

“Our best guess remains well into 2026, probably around Q2. That’s when the liquidity cycle is most likely to peak.”

Most importantly, Pal has pushed back against claims that crypto is entering a long bear market. Instead, he argues the market is still building toward its next major move.

Other Experts Begin to Agree

Pal’s outlook is no longer a lonely one. Market strategist Tom Lee has also pointed out that when the ISM index moves back above 50, it has historically aligned with powerful moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

Meanwhile, this supports Pal’s view that crypto’s biggest gains may still lie ahead.

Altcoin Chart Backs The Timeline

Popular crypto trader Ash Crypto shared a chart showing the crypto market without the top 10 coins. The chart suggests prices are sitting on strong, long-term support, similar to levels seen before past altcoin rallies.

Ash says major altcoin runs usually begin only after the U.S. Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening (QT). When QT stops, money slowly returns to the market, which helps risk assets like altcoins MOVE higher.

He also explains that altcoin rallies do not start easily. Prices often move sideways or fall first, with sharp drops and liquidations that shake out weak traders.

According to Ash, the current market structure looks similar to 2020. If this pattern repeats, it could point to an altcoin rally starting around 2026.

Looking at the Altcoin Season Index, it is currently at 37, showing that the market is still far from a true altcoin season.