Bitcoin Cycle Has ’Inverted’ – Analyst Spots Bear Market Signals Emerging in 2025

Forget the old playbook. A seismic shift is rattling crypto's core narrative.

The Great Inversion

Market analysts are sounding the alarm on a structural breakdown. The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle—halving, boom, bust, repeat—appears to have flipped. Key on-chain metrics and macro indicators that typically scream 'bull market' are now flashing red, suggesting the long-awaited 2025 downturn might be arriving early, or in a wholly unfamiliar pattern.

Decoding the Signals

It's not just price action. The inversion theory points to fundamentals moving out of sync: miner revenue trends diverging from hash rate, exchange flows behaving contrary to historical precedent, and institutional accumulation patterns that bypass retail sentiment entirely. The market isn't just cooling; it's operating under a new, unknown set of rules.

What's left for traders and long-term holders? Adaptation. Strategies built on past cycles could lead to ruin. This isn't a dip to buy; it's a paradigm shift demanding a recalibration of risk models and timing. The only thing more volatile than crypto prices might be the theories trying to predict them—a fitting irony for an asset class built to disrupt traditional finance, only to be disrupted by its own internal clock.

A new market thesis is grabbing attention.

Author and industry expert Shanaka Anslem Perera says the Bitcoin cycle didn’t break this time, but flipped instead. And if he’s right, the bear market everyone is waiting for may already be behind us.

A Different Cycle

Perera points to one unusual moment: bitcoin broke its all-time high before the halving. That has never happened in any previous cycle.

To him, that was the key signal that the usual four-year rhythm had inverted.

He argues that 2024 wasn’t a bull run at all, calling it “political repricing.” In other words, investors were reacting to the possibility of a pro-crypto U.S. administration, not the start of a new crypto wave.

2025 Looks Like a Bear Market in Disguise

On paper, Bitcoin NEAR $90K shouldn’t feel bearish. But Perera says the signs are there:

• Bitcoin dominance at multi-year highs
• Altcoins “bleeding to death”
• $3.5B in ETF outflows in a single month
• A 29% correction from the October peak
• Sentiment indicators stuck in fear

A price that once sounded impossible now feels uncomfortable.

Bitcoin’s Demand Now Moves With the Fed

Perera believes the halving cycle was overtaken by macro. Once ETFs funneled institutional capital into Bitcoin, demand began tracking Federal Reserve liquidity instead of retail euphoria.

Some agreed with him, saying Bitcoin “outgrew its old cycle” the moment it entered mainstream financial plumbing. Others argued the narrative is compelling but not confirmed.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Perera’s conclusion is straightforward: if the market already lived through its bear phase emotionally , even at high prices, the next major MOVE could be the real blow-off top.

In his words: “The bear market is behind you. Act accordingly.”