Raoul Pal’s Bold Bitcoin Call: Bigger Rally Ahead as Liquidity Wave Peaks in 2026
Raoul Pal just threw gasoline on the crypto bull market narrative. The macro guru isn't just calling for higher prices—he's forecasting a historic liquidity surge that could redefine Bitcoin's ceiling.
The Liquidity Tsunami
Forget incremental gains. Pal maps a massive wave of global capital flooding into risk assets, with its peak cresting in 2026. This isn't about retail FOMO; it's a systemic shift where institutions and sovereign wealth funds play catch-up.
Beyond the Halving Hype
While miners count blocks, Pal counts dollars. The real catalyst, he argues, bypasses Bitcoin's internal mechanics and taps directly into the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and fiscal policy—a classic case of Wall Street's solution to every problem being more liquidity, until it isn't.
The 2026 Inflection Point
Mark the calendar. That's when the liquidity impulse hits maximum velocity. All that digital money searching for a home doesn't park in bonds yielding less than inflation. It chases the hardest asset on the planet.
So, strap in. The current rally might just be the warm-up act for a main event fueled by the greatest monetary experiment in history. Just remember—in finance, every 'unprecedented wave' eventually hits the shore.
Raoul Pal thinks the crypto market is being misunderstood.
In a new video on the crypto Nutshell YouTube channel, he says the recent weakness isn’t a top, but a temporary liquidity gap that’s hitting crypto first. And if his read on the cycle is right, the bigger move is still ahead, not behind us.
A Strange Market: Near Highs, but No Real Strength
Pal points out that markets look fine on the surface, yet everything feels fragile. Crypto dips, tech wobbles, and every pullback feels bigger than it actually is.
He ties this to a “liquidity air pocket” caused by three overlapping forces: the Treasury rebuilding its General Account, the reverse repo drain, and ongoing QT.
With those pieces pulling cash out of the system at the same time, the assets furthest out on the risk curve, like crypto and small caps, take the hit. Fund managers are still chasing missed AI gains, so even small moves spark outsized reactions.
Why Retail Still Isn’t Back
Pal also describes a K-shaped economy. AI giants keep booming, but Main Street is stuck with weak cash FLOW and the longest ISM manufacturing stretch below 50 on record. Households and small businesses simply don’t have spare money, which explains why retail investors haven’t returned to crypto.
Heading into the election cycle, he expects policymakers to push toward easier conditions – rate cuts, tax tweaks, and steps aimed at supporting everyday consumers.
ETFs Didn’t Spark a Rally – And There’s a Reason
Despite the hype, Pal says most ETF activity is arbitrage, not new buying. Total liquidity hasn’t broken to fresh highs this cycle, and crypto usually won’t MOVE sustainably until it does.
That’s why Bitcoin’s price action has felt flat even with ETFs in the mix.
Looking Ahead: 2026 Up, 2027 the Real Risk
Pal believes liquidity should rise into 2025-2026, setting up a stronger crypto run. The “real danger window,” he says, is more likely in 2027, when the next major liquidity downcycle hits.
For now, this choppy stretch may only be the setup phase for a much larger move ahead.
