Fed Rate Cut Odds for October & December 2025: What Markets Are Pricing

Wall Street's crystal ball is flashing again—this time pointing toward late 2025 for the next Fed pivot.

The Rate Cut Countdown Begins

Traders are placing bets on Federal Reserve action with October and December 2025 emerging as the most probable timing for monetary easing. The probabilities suggest a coordinated market expectation rather than scattered speculation.

Why These Dates Matter

Market pricing reflects a calculated gamble on inflation trajectories and economic cooling patterns. The spread between October and December probabilities reveals nuanced expectations about how quickly the Fed might move once it starts cutting.

The Institutional Positioning Game

Major funds are already building positions around these projected dates—because nothing says 'confidence' like betting on economic outcomes two years out while the current economy keeps everyone guessing.

Wall Street's forecasting track record remains, as always, perfectly imperfect—but the rate cut probabilities paint a clear picture of where the smart money thinks we're headed. Eventually.