Crypto Market Today: MNT, HASH Soar While Majors Eye Crucial U.S. Inflation Report

Digital assets show split personality as altcoins surge while Bitcoin holds breath for economic data.

Momentum Meets Macro

MNT and HASH tokens defy gravity with double-digit gains, completely ignoring the sideways action in major cryptocurrencies. Retail traders pile into momentum plays while institutional money stays parked on the sidelines.

Inflation Report Looms Large

All eyes turn to today's CPI data—the number that could make or break the current crypto rally. Bitcoin's been coiled like a spring around $60K, waiting for the Fed's next move to become clearer. Traders know the drill: hot inflation numbers trigger risk-off panic, while cooler data fuels the bull case.

Altcoin Season Heating Up

While the big names hesitate, smaller caps feast. MNT's infrastructure narrative gains traction as developers flock to its scaling solutions. HASH's privacy features attract attention amid growing regulatory scrutiny—because nothing says 'financial freedom' like hiding your transactions from authorities.

The classic crypto dichotomy: fundamentals matter until macro decides they don't. Today's inflation print will determine whether this is another 'buy the dip' opportunity or the start of a broader risk-asset rout. Because in traditional finance, they print money—in crypto, we just print hopium.

Derivatives Positioning

By Omkar Godbole

• Open interest (OI) in BTC futures and perpetual futures listed worldwide remains elevated at 736K BTC, just short of last month's record high 748K BTC.
• In the past 24 hours the tally has remained relatively unchanged, alongside tentative trading in futures tied to altcoins, as traders adopted a cautious stance before today's critical U.S. CPI report.
• Volmex’s one-day BTC implied volatility index continues to fluctuate within a months long range of 25% to 50%, indicating that the market is not anticipating significant volatility from the CPI announcement. The index recently stood at 35.50%, suggesting an expected one-day price movement of about 1.85%.
• Volatility indices linked to ETH, SOL and XRP also remain locked in recent ranges.
• On the CME, OI in bitcoin futures remains depressed at multimonth lows, while OI in ether continues to recede from recent record highs.
• Options, however, show the opposite trend. BTC options OI has increased to over 50,000 BTC, the most since April. And ether options OI has jumped to 260K ETH, the highest since August 2024.
• On Deribit, 25-delta risk reversals continue to exhibit a bias toward put options in bitcoin and ether. Flows on OTC desk Paradigm continued to lean bearish, with some traders picking up the September expiry $4,000 ETH put.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• Mantle (MNT) led a wider altcoin jump on Thursday, rising to a record high of $1.62 on the back of significant volume on derivatives exchange Bybit.
• The native token of its namesake's layer-2 network is primarily a governance token, but is also widely staked as investors look to secure a yield on their holdings.
• The annualized return of staking MNT on Coinbase stands at 71%, far more than the 1.86% return holders get for staking ether (ETH) on the same platform.
• This has led to more than two thirds of MNT's total supply being staked, resulting in a lack of supply on exchanges amid a wave of demand.
• Trading volume on Bybit hit $195 million over the past 24 hours, an 83% rise on the previous 24 hours.
• Open interest is also up 20%, outpacing the 15% gain in price, which can be attributed to traders opening new leveraged positions to bet on further upside.
• The new record high price could pave the way for other altcoins to rally too.
• The "altcoin season" index rose to 67/100 on Thursday, demonstrating trader preference to trade more speculative and lower liquidity assets like MNT as opposed to crypto majors BTC and ETH.