Shock $400B Liquidity Drain From U.S. Treasury Account Hammers Bitcoin and Stocks—Not Jackson Hole, Analysts Reveal

Markets reel as a massive liquidity pull triggers sharp declines.

The Real Drain

Forget Jackson Hole—analysts pinpoint a staggering $400 billion Treasury account withdrawal as the true culprit behind Bitcoin's plunge and stock market turmoil. This isn't typical Fed chatter; it's a direct liquidity squeeze hitting risk assets hard.

Active Impact

The move slashes available capital, forcing investors to ditch speculative holdings. Bitcoin tanks alongside equities as cash vanishes from the system. No room for passive reactions here—traders scramble to adjust portfolios amid the cash exodus.

Cynical Take

Because nothing says 'sound fiscal policy' like yanking half a trillion dollars and acting surprised when markets panic. Classic Treasury maneuver—create chaos, then blame 'market volatility.'

Bottom Line: Liquidity rules everything, and when it drains, even digital gold gets rusty.

What is the Treasury General Account?

The Treasury General Account is the U.S. government's operating account at the Federal Reserve, which is used to collect taxes, customs duties, proceeds from the sale of securities, and public debt receipts, while facilitating government payments.

Just as our savings bank accounts, the TGA balance fluctuates daily, rising with receipts and falling with payments.

The Treasury typically spends the cash balance during periods of fiscal uncertainty, such as the evergreen debt ceiling saga, to ensure the government meets its obligations. The so-called TGA spend typically adds to liquidity in the system, greasing risk assets, as seen in early 2023 and early this year.

The opposite occurs when the Treasury seeks to rebuild its balance by issuing more debt than necessary to fund its obligations. This tends to suck out liquidity from the system.

The TGA refill is happening under fragile conditions

The TGA balance has risen from roughly $320 billion to over $500 billion since late July, according to data source MacroMicro. Seeking Alpha estimates that the Treasury may need to issue new debt worth $500-$600 billion in the next two to four months to restore the TGA to healthy levels.

The rebuild is happening against the backdrop of fragile conditions than in previous years, according to Delphi Digital.

"Compared to 2023, the financial system now faces fewer liquidity buffers, tighter balance sheet capacity, and a diminished foreign bid for Treasuries. The structural ability to absorb large-scale issuance has weakened across all major channels. If the Federal Reserve maintains its tightening stance or delays a pivot, the resulting mismatch between supply and available demand could drive up funding rates and spill over into broader risk assets, including crypto," Marcus Wu, research analyst at Delphi Digital, said in an explainer.

Wu added that the last large-scale rebuild, which happened in the second half of 2024, was compensated by other pro-liquidity developments such as the $2 trillion in the Fed's RRP facility, healthy bank reserves and strong foreign demand for the debt.

However, these factors have eroded over time, "leaving the current liquidity environment ripe for disruption," Wu noted.

To cut a long story short, liquidity constraints pose a significant challenge for BTC bulls looking to engineer a steep uptrend well into the year-end.