U.K. 30-Year Yield Surpasses U.S. as Debt Crisis Looms—Who’s Holding the Bag?

Brace for impact: Britain’s long-term borrowing costs just overtook America’s—and the Treasury’s sweating bullets.

### The Debt Domino Effect

No fancy footwork can hide it—the U.K. government’s balance sheet is doing the limbo under rising gilt yields. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s already placing bets on which pension fund cracks first.

### Yield Wars: London vs. Washington

When 30-year debt becomes the hot potato nobody wants, you know the fiscal hawks are circling. Bonus irony? Both nations still pretend inflation’s ‘transitory.’

Closing thought: Maybe they should’ve hodl’d some Bitcoin instead.

Focus on U.K. inflation report

Wednesday's U.K. inflation report is critical for bond markets.

The data is expected to show that both the headline consumer price index (CPI) and Core CPI remained well above the 2% target in July, according to data source Trading Economics. The headline CPI is expected to be 3.7% year-over-year (up from the previous 3.6%), while core inflation is forecast to remain at 3.7% (unchanged from the prior month). The data will hit the wires just weeks after the Bank of England cut rates to 4%.

Expectations for sticky inflation couldn't have come at a worse time, as the GDP growth has weakened and unemployment has begun to edge higher from secular lows.

Repeat of 2022 crisis?

A hot inflation report could only worsen the debt-bond dynamics by accelerating the uptrend in yields. This calls for both crypto and traditional market traders to remain vigilant for a 2022-style volatility in the U.K. markets.

The hardening of the 30-year gilt yield, representing the long end of the curve, played a big role in the liability-driven investment (LDI) pension crisis of 2022, which erupted under Liz Truss. The longer duration yield is now testing the upper bound of a long-term trend and could rise to 5.7%, the highest level since May 1998.

LDI strategies use leverage to hedge pension liabilities. When gilt yields spiked in 2022, collateral calls led to a mass sale of gilts, creating a feedback loop that threatened financial stability. That prompted the Bank of England to intervene with emergency purchases to prevent a systemic crisis.

If Wednesday's inflation report runs hotter than expected, gilt yields could break new highs, putting further pressure on the government and raising the risk of another LDI-style crisis.