Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Week: Powell’s Testimony, U.S. Core PCE & Tariff Deadline Could Spark Fireworks

Strap in, crypto traders—this week’s macroeconomic gauntlet could send Bitcoin on a wild ride. With Powell’s testimony, U.S. Core PCE data, and a tariff deadline looming, the stage is set for volatility.

Powell’s Poker Face: The Fed chair’s words will be dissected for hints on rate cuts—or lack thereof. Markets hang on every syllable, but let’s be real: central bankers love keeping us guessing.

Core PCE Crunch: The Fed’s favorite inflation metric drops this week. Hotter-than-expected numbers? Kiss those dovish dreams goodbye. Cue the ‘stagflation’ Twitter threads.

Tariff Ticking Clock: Trade war escalations could slam risk assets—or push more capital into crypto’s ‘uncorrelated’ arms. Spoiler: Wall Street’s ‘hedge’ narrative works until it doesn’t.

Bottom line: Bitcoin’s primed for a macro-fueled breakout or breakdown. Meanwhile, traditional finance still thinks ‘digital gold’ is a meme. Their loss.

Core PCE

On the data front, the Core personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, scheduled for release on Friday, is the marquee release.

According to Pepperstone, the consensus is for the data to show a 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, resulting in an annualized growth rate of 2.6% and a three-month annualized rate of 1.6%.

Expectations of a benign 0.1% increase support the Fed rate cut bets; however, according to ING, the inflationary impact of Trump's tariffs is expected to kick in from July.

Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, announced in early April, is set to expire on July 9, following which the heavy 'Liberation Day' tariffs take effect.

So far, the president has made a deal with the U.K. and announced a trade framework with China. Beijing is yet to sign the deal and the European Union remains quiet.

Iran tensions are not over yet

While the oil market is calm for now, Iran could inflict damage even without closing the Strait of Hormuz, a trade route that carries about a fifth of the world's oil.

By constantly threatening the closure of the strait alone, Iran could push up shipping insurance costs, ultimately adding to oil prices.

The cost to insure a vessel for the journey via the Strait of Hormuz has already risen from 20 cents a barrel to 80, a report by South China Morning Post said, quoting the Athens-based Xclusiv Shipbrokers.

"By planting enough belief that they could disrupt this key logistical channel, maritime costs could rise to the point that it WOULD have a significant impact on the supply of crude and gas," Weston noted.