Bitcoin Stalls Below All-Time High—But On-Chain Data Says Bulls Are Still in Charge

Bitcoin’s price action looks shaky after failing to break records—yet ’realized price’ metrics tell a different story. Here’s why traders aren’t hitting the panic button yet.

The Dip That Wasn’t: Despite the pullback, the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation (aka realized price) remains firmly below spot prices. Translation? Most holders are still sitting pretty.

Wall Street’s Two Cents: Analysts point to whale accumulation and shrinking exchange reserves as bullish counterpoints to the price hesitation. Meanwhile, traditional finance pundits still can’t decide if crypto is ’digital gold’ or a glorified Ponzi scheme—some things never change.

Bottom Line: The charts might show hesitation, but the blockchain screams conviction. If history rhymes, this consolidation could be fuel for the next leg up.

Historical Context: Capitulation Patterns

Historically, when price falls below a cohort’s realized price, it often marks market capitulation and cyclical bottoms:

• 2024: After the ETF launch in January, bitcoin dipped below the average cost basis before rebounding. A more significant capitulation followed in the summer, linked to the yen carry trade unwind when bitcoin plunged to $49,000.
• 2023: Price tracked close to the average cost basis during support levels, only briefly breaking below during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March.

The data suggests that a capitulation phase has likely occurred, positioning the market for a more constructive phase. Historically, recoveries from such events mark transitions into healthier market conditions.

When bitcoin first surpassed $20,000 during the 2017 bull market, it marked a significant divergence between the market price and the realized price of just $5,149, highlighting a phase of exuberant speculation. Unsurprisingly, prices very shortly went into a brutal reversal.

In contrast, by the depths of the 2018 bear market when bitcoin bottomed around $3,200, price at that point converged with the all-time realized price, a metric that aggregates the cost basis of all investors across cycles.

This long-term cost basis acts as a foundational support level in bear markets and gradually rises over time as new capital enters the market. Therefore, evaluating bitcoin solely by comparing cycle peaks, for example, from $69,000 in 2021 to just over $100,000 in 2025, misses the bigger picture.

The more relevant insight is that the aggregate cost basis of all investors continues to climb, underscoring the long-term maturation of the asset and the increasing depth of capital committed to the network.