Bitcoin Traders Eye Seasonal Slump—Will ’Sell in May’ Haunt Crypto Markets Again?

As May kicks off, Bitcoin hodlers face their annual stress test: the dreaded ’Sell in May and Go Away’ seasonal pattern. Historical charts show crypto winters often start here—just when Wall Street bankers take their first Hamptons margarita of the season.

Technical analysts point to weakening on-chain metrics, while derivatives traders pile into puts. ’It’s not FUD if the numbers back it up,’ grumbles one hedge fund manager adjusting his short position.

But crypto never follows the script neatly. This time last year, Bitcoin ripped 20% higher while traditional markets floundered. Will 2025 defy the bears again—or prove that even decentralized finance can’t escape Wall Street’s tired old playbook?

These patterns don’t guarantee future performance, they suggest that crypto markets may be increasingly reacting to the same macro and seasonal sentiment as equities, especially as more institutional capital enters the space.

Traders may grow cautious based on historical price seasonality and fading momentum after strong Q1 rallies. Altcoins, especially meme coins, may be particularly vulnerable to pullbacks, given their recent hype-driven rallies and speculative flows.

“Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average gain of just 1.8% from May through October, with positive returns in about 65% of those six-month periods—well below the stronger performance seen from November through April,” Vugar Usi Zade, COO at crypto exchange Bitget, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

Over the past 12 years, average Q2 returns (April–June) for BTC have stood at 26%, but with a median of only 7.5% — a sign of outlier-driven performance and recurring volatility.

By Q3 (July–September), the average return drops to 6%, and the median turns slightly negative, suggesting a pattern of post-Q2 fatigue or consolidation, Zade added, citing data.

“This seasonality overlap suggests caution heading into May. Historically, Q4 marks Bitcoin’s strongest seasonal period, with an average return of +85.4% and a median of +52.3%, whereas Q3 tends to deliver more muted or negative outcomes,” Zade said.

In short, while Wall Street calendars don’t bind crypto, market psychology still responds to narratives, and “Sell in May” could become a self-fulfilling prophecy — especially if technicals start to crack and sentiment flips.