Bitcoin Traders Brace for NFP Shock With Hedging Plays
Bitcoin traders are scrambling to hedge against potential NFP-fueled volatility as Friday's jobs report looms.
Defensive Positioning Takes Center Stage
Options markets show surging demand for downside protection—put volumes spiked 40% this week as institutional players build defensive walls. The smart money isn't betting against Bitcoin; they're betting against traditional finance's tendency to overreact to lagging indicators.
Correlation Plays and Decoupling Dreams
While Bitcoin maintains its notorious correlation with risk assets during macro events, traders are increasingly using crypto-native derivatives to bypass traditional market mechanics. Because why trust the Fed's data when you can trust code?
The ultimate hedge? Watching traditional portfolios bleed while Bitcoin does what it does best—ignoring economic reports written by bureaucrats who still think 'blockchain' is a spreadsheet feature.
Downside fear
Selby observed that, unlike previous pre-NFP periods when put buying was mainly focused on long-term expiries, this time the activity is spread across both short-term and long-term expiries.
"The breadth of put buying reflects a market recalibrating around asymmetric risks, as much of this activity is centred around far OTM puts, indicating traders still see a materially strong jobs print as an outside chance. That lines up with our view that even an in-line or slightly stronger-than-expected payrolls number WOULD not be sufficient to tilt the Fed’s balance of risks back toward its price stability mandate," Selby told CoinDesk.
Options listed on Deribit, the world's largest crypto options exchange by volume and open interest, also exhibit downside fears, with short and near-dated puts trading at a notable premium to calls, according to risk reversals tracked by Amberdata.
As of writing, BTC changed hands at $109,950, down 2% on a 24-hour basis, according to CoinDesk data. The recovery from weekend lows ran out of steam above $112,000 on Wednesday, reinforcing the Aug. 3 low as key resistance.
