Trump’s Airstrike Fallout: Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade Probability Jumps to 52% on Polymarket
Geopolitical tensions just got priced in—literally. Prediction markets are flashing red after Trump's targeted strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Betting the farm on chaos
Polymarket traders now see a 52% chance Iran retaliates by choking off the Strait of Hormuz—the oil world's carotid artery. That's up from just 18% last week. Somebody's buying puts on global trade.
Black swans love company
The market's knee-jerk reaction? Bitcoin up 3%, oil futures spiking 9%. Because nothing says 'hedge against WWIII' like digital scarcity and dead dinosaurs. Wall Street's already packaging Hormuz blockade derivatives—coming soon to a pension fund near you.
When the guns boom, the algos zoom. Just don't ask who's actually holding the bag when the music stops.
As of writing, the cryptocurrency market has not shown any signs of panic, with bitcoin BTC continuing to trade above $100,000, per CoinDesk data.
President Donald TRUMP confirmed airstrikes Saturday evening, saying the attack Obliterated three critical Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, calling "the bully of the Middle East [Iran] to make peace."
