Fed’s Next Move Could Make or Break Bitcoin in 2025

The Federal Reserve holds Bitcoin's fate in its hands—again. As Wall Street sweats over rate decisions, crypto traders are bracing for impact.

Will Powell pump or dump the market this time?

When the Fed sneezes, crypto catches a cold. Their last policy shift sent BTC tumbling 20% in 48 hours—and that was just a hint of dovishness. Now with inflation still sticky, the central bank's next play could trigger crypto's biggest rally... or its ugliest sell-off yet.

Meanwhile, traditional finance guys are still trying to short BTC with leverage. Some lessons never stick.

Cryptocurrency Developments

In 2021, while investors focused on patterns like OBO and TOBO, the end of the year saw a shift towards economic and political analysis. Many investors were unaware of what ISM Manufacturing PMI or JOLTS data signified during the last bull markets. Now, deciphering the significance of missile destructive power has gained importance for cryptocurrency holders, highlighting the asset class’s maturation. This illustrates the transformation of cryptocurrencies into a genuine asset class.

Returning to the topic, the “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” or JOLTS report was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics under the U.S. Department of Labor. The previous data was at 7,769M, with today’s forecast at a reduced 7.5M level. A high number of job openings indicates strong labor demand, indicating a buzzing economy and production. crypto Traders Are Rushing to This App – Here’s Why You Should Too

CB Consumer Confidence is reported by The Conference Board, an independent organization assessing citizens’ Optimism or pessimism regarding current economic conditions and six-month outlooks. Previously, CB Consumer data triggered substantial cryptocurrency fluctuations.

If we aim for a decrease in interest rates, job openings must be weak and demonstrate a relaxation tendency for the Fed to reduce rates.

• US JOLTS Job Openings Announced: 7,437M (Expectation: 7.5M, Previous: 7,769M)
• US CB Consumer Confidence Index Announced: 97.2 (Expectation: 96, Previous: 93)

Consumer confidence seems to have exceeded expectations and significantly improved compared to the previous month. This is positive for the long-term outlook of crypto, as it can curb recession fears. However, in the short and medium term, it suggests an environment conducive for the Fed to maintain tight interest rates. BTC likely weakened due to this scenario.

Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board Global Indicators, stated:

“Consumer confidence has stabilized since May after the April decline but remains below last year’s high levels. In July, pessimism about the future slightly decreased, leading to a modest improvement in overall confidence. All three components of the Expectation Index improved; consumers feel less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, while more optimistic regarding future incomes. Conversely, consumers’ assessment of current conditions has changed little. In July, they were slightly more optimistic about current business conditions compared to June. However, their evaluations of current job availability weakened for the seventh month, reaching its lowest point since March 2021. Notably, 18.9% of consumers reported finding jobs hard to get in July, compared to 14.5% in January.”

Regarding JOLTS, in June 2025, total job openings numbered 7.437 million, a decrease of 275,000 from the previous month. This decline could indicate moderate cooling in the labor market. June’s hiring decreased by 261,000, totaling 5.204 million. Voluntary changes were flat at 3.142 million, with a rate of 2.0%. Notably, the professional services sector saw a decrease of 114,000. Increased resignations indicate strong labor demand; however, the opposite is true here.

In summary, job openings are declining, hiring is slowing, and investors remain cautious. Nonetheless, major layoff movements are yet to occur. This report indicates the maturation of conditions necessary for the Fed to consider rate cuts, yet highlights the absence of urgency.