Crypto Markets Bounce Back—Traders Pretend They Never Panicked

After weeks of white-knuckle volatility, digital assets are climbing again—right on schedule for the ’buy the dip’ crowd.

Green candles erase fear

Bitcoin and altcoins stage their 27th ’death-to-rebirth’ cycle since 2009, leaving bagholders relieved and skeptics rolling their eyes. Traders who leveraged their grandma’s savings are suddenly geniuses again.

The institutional sharks are circling

BlackRock’s crypto department ’accidentally’ leaked a buy order for 10,000 BTC—just as prices bottomed. How fortuitous.

Closing thought: Another rally, another round of crypto bros explaining why *this time* it’s different. Meanwhile, gold bugs quietly sob into their physical bullion.

Rising US CDS

The US government’s default risk, defined by CDS, is escalating rapidly. This rise, a negative economic signal, stems from the TRUMP administration’s aggressive policies. US one-year CDS surged to 52 basis points, marking the highest in 2023.

Previously, the 2023 debt ceiling crisis had pushed CDS upward. However, despite no current talks of a government shutdown, the increase persists. Excluding the debt ceiling crisis, current CDS levels have hit a 12-year high.

“Unsettled CDS volume grew ~1 billion dollars this year, reaching 3.9 billion dollars, the second highest since 2014.

This situation triggers growing concerns about the US government’s widening budget deficit. In January, the US reached its legal borrowing limit, taking ‘extraordinary measures’ to avoid default. The debt ceiling crisis never fully resolved.” – TKL

CDS growth is negatively impacting the global economy and indirectly affecting the broader crypto markets. This elevation, fuelled by Trump’s fierce tariff policies, could heighten borrowing costs, making it crucial for the Trump administration to exhibit leniency.

Cryptocurrencies

The Treasury Secretary hinted that the initial six months were chaotic, predicting the latter quarters as a period to reap fruitful outcomes. Cryptocurrencies are anticipated to commence their upward trend during this harvest period in the latter two quarters. Particularly, potential altcoin ETF approvals as of November could create a significant impact.

DaanCrypto warned investors on what to be vigilant about:

“When the market stabilizes, major unlocks of held tokens will significantly impact you.

Such unlocks are generally well absorbed during substantial upward trends. However, if the market is in a downturn with minimal risk appetite, holding these coins often leads to painful declines with minor bounces. This has been evident in numerous coins over recent years.”

Meanwhile, Mags shared the following cup-and-handle pattern.

This model suggests the bullish trend is proceeding smoothly, with BTC advancing towards $125,000.