Bitcoin Defies Gravity: Why the Next Bull Run Might Be Closer Than You Think

Crypto’s old guard isn’t going quietly—BTC’s resilience has traders whispering about a breakout.

Market Mechanics Fueling the Fire

Liquidity’s tightening, shorts are sweating, and the halving dust has settled. All the classic ingredients for a volatile cocktail.

Wall Street’s Late to the Party (Again)

While traditional finance scrambles to ’discover’ digital gold, OGs stack sats—proving once more that adoption moves faster than compliance departments.

Could this finally be the cycle where Bitcoin humbles another batch of overleveraged hedge funds? Only time—and leverage ratios—will tell.

$107,718, after reaching its all-time high, continues to fluctuate within a narrow price band for several weeks. Yet, the market remains vibrant, with transaction volumes soaring across the board, including spot exchanges and derivatives markets. According to on-chain data provider Glassnode, this upswing in volumes is indicative of sustained rally strength. The movement of coins from institutional and individual wallets is drawing in new buyers and concurrently limiting the inclination for profit-taking among investors. Analysts emphasize that if this upward momentum persists, the $120,000 threshold could present the first significant test.

ContentsRising Transaction Volumes on Chain and ExchangesHow the US Tax Agenda Influences Market Psychology

Rising Transaction Volumes on Chain and Exchanges

A Cambridge-backed research indicates that in the last thirty days, the average daily inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges has surpassed 27,000 coins. This figure is approximately 35% higher than the level recorded during the previous cycle’s peak. Meanwhile, the value of open positions in futures markets has neared $40 billion, and total open interest in the options market has soared above $18 billion. The surge in exchange volume reaching one-third of the total on-chain volume signifies liquidity concentration on centralized platforms, thereby fueling volatility and paving the way for sharper price movements.

Glassnode’s report highlights that the increase in long-term investors’ spending propensity remains moderate compared to previous bull markets. Although the average profitability ratio has climbed to 66%, on-chain profit realizations fall notably short of the 2021 peak levels. Thus, while fresh capital continues to FLOW into the market, the pace of selling old coins is kept in check. This balance inspires hope that the trend could be long-lasting, alleviating the fear of “missing out” among new entrants.

How the US Tax Agenda Influences Market Psychology

Debates over additional tariffs in Washington are causing volatility across a wide array of assets, from equity indices to commodity prices, with cryptocurrency investors keenly monitoring geopolitical tensions. The decision by the International Trade Court to nullify the Trump-era “reciprocal tariffs” has sparked a new legal battle with the White House’s appeal. Until the ultimate path of the decision becomes clear, uncertainty will prevail. As the potential for a slowdown in trade flow puts pressure on US bond yields, the search for global liquidity positions Bitcoin as a short-term defensive haven.

Technically, the price is stuck in the $112,000 – $115,000 range, but a volume-supported breakout may accelerate it towards $120,000. Glassnode data reveals that 990,000 coins exchanged hands in the said area, and a potential upswing might trigger a wave of short-term sellers. However, the pressure from profit-taking remains limited, as protection costs in the options market stay relatively low. Investor sentiment continues to factor in the theme of “one more run before a major correction.”

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