Bitcoin Long Positions Explode at Bitfinex: Traders Bet Big on 2026 Rally

Bitfinex traders are loading up on bullish bets, signaling a major shift in market sentiment as the year draws to a close.

The Long Game

Forget the whispers of a bear market. The data from one of crypto's major exchanges tells a different story—a story of conviction. A surge in long positions isn't just a technical blip; it's a coordinated vote of confidence in Bitcoin's underlying thesis. This isn't day-trading noise. This is capital positioning for what comes next.

Reading the Tape

When sophisticated players increase exposure, they're not following the news—they're anticipating it. This buildup often precedes significant price movements, acting as a pressure cooker for volatility. It suggests a belief that current prices represent a value entry point, not a peak. The move highlights a classic divide: the fear-driven retail crowd versus institutions and pros building strategic positions. Sometimes, the smartest trade is the boring one—just sitting and waiting for everyone else to catch up.

The herd is finally moving, albeit in that predictable, lumbering way that makes you wonder who's left to buy at the top. The real question isn't about the surge today, but who holds their nerve when the inevitable shakeout comes tomorrow.

Bitcoin$89,674.52 long positions with leverage at the Bitfinex exchange have surged significantly in recent months. Data from TradingView indicates that the margin long position balance has climbed to approximately 72,700 BTC, reaching levels not seen since February 2024. Starting in October from around 55,000 BTC, the rise persisted even when the price dropped from over $126,000 to $89,000, reflecting a continued tendency to “buy the dip” among traders. Some exchanges saw trough prices NEAR $80,000 in November, and the increasing use of leverage stands as a notable sign of market sentiment.

Bitfinex’s Leverage Peaks Again

The data underscores Bitfinex as an enduring reference point for leveraged trading among leading cryptocurrency exchanges. The margin long positions reaching 72,700 BTC is reminiscent of levels observed prior to the March 2024 peak at around $73,000. This increase in positions indicates an additional leveraged purchase of approximately 17,700 BTC since October. Despite Bitcoin’s price dip from above $126,000 to $89,000, traders maintained their risk appetite, reflecting continued bullish expectations through borrowing.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin entering three consecutive months of decline stands out as another pertinent data point. According to experts, a three-month continuous pullback was last seen during the bear market in mid-2022. Currently, the leverage dynamics resemble a similar pressure where Leveraged trading activity is increasing.

History and Contrarian Indicators

Historically, the accumulation of margin long positions on Bitfinex has not always signaled a straightforward rally. Past instances suggest that while long position balances tend to peak amid market strain, they diminish rapidly as new uptrends begin to form. This relationship between bottoms and unwinding of longs is tracked as a contrarian indicator.

During the yen carry trade unwinding in August 2024, Bitcoin found a bottom around $49,000, coinciding with a sharp decline in leveraged long positions. A similar dynamic appeared in April 2025 amid Donald Trump’s tariff-induced sell-off, when margin longs dropped near the $75,000 level, indicating weak hands exiting the market before a rebound ensued.

In the present scenario, the continued increase in long positions suggests that the “cleansing” signal has not yet formed. Consequently, as leverage accumulation at Bitfinex persists, the likelihood that bitcoin has not yet found a definite bottom increases.