Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Signal a Major Market Shift: The Quiet Exodus Begins

The smart money is moving. Not with a bang, but a whisper—a slow, deliberate transfer from the vaults of the patient to the wallets of the impatient.

The HODLer Exodus

For years, these digital stalwarts weathered every storm, from 80% crashes to regulatory FUD. Their conviction was the bedrock of the market. Now, on-chain data shows a sustained, multi-month trend of coins leaving wallets untouched for half a decade or more. This isn't panic selling; it's strategic distribution. The old guard is taking profits, and a new cohort is stepping in.

What the Data Doesn't Show (But Implies)

The numbers tell a story of supply unlocking. Each coin that changes hands resets the clock, moving from 'illiquid' to 'liquid' in analysts' dashboards. This gradual release of long-held supply increases selling pressure at higher price levels—a headwind markets haven't faced since the last cycle's peak. It's the crypto equivalent of a central bank slowly tightening monetary policy, one Satoshi at a time.

The New Market Psychology

This shift fractures a key market narrative. The 'diamond hands' thesis—that a constantly growing base of perpetual holders would indefinitely reduce circulating supply—is cracking. The market must now digest the reality that everyone, even the most devout, has a price. It turns out 'number go up' technology still obeys the oldest rule in finance: buy low, sell high. Who knew?

The baton is being passed. Whether this leads to a sustained top or a healthy rejuvenation before the next leg up depends entirely on who's buying. If it's just leverage-fueled speculators chasing the last cycle's gains, watch out. If it's a new wave of long-term institutional conviction, the foundation is being rebuilt stronger. One thing's clear: the era of passive holding as the dominant market force is over. The next chapter will be written by active capital.

The recent report from research and brokerage firm K33 indicates that pressure from long-term Bitcoin$90,357.50 holders may be reaching saturation, following a multi-year distribution process. Notably, the supply of BTC that has been dormant for more than two years since 2024 has been declining steadily, catalyzing around 1.6 million BTC (equivalent to approximately 138 billion dollars at current prices) to become active again. K33’s Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, suggests that this apparent scale points to a significant distribution rather than mere technical wallet movements.

The Significance of Declining Old Supply

According to Lunde, the reduction in BTC held in unspent outputs older than two years produces a strong signal that early investors are selling within the Blockchain. While the transformation of GBTC into a spot ETF format, wallet consolidation, and address upgrades for security explain some movements, K33’s report emphasizes that the total revival cannot be fully explained by these factors alone.

The report positions 2024 and 2025 as the second and third largest years in Bitcoin’s history for the long-term supply returning to circulation, surpassed only by 2017. Lunde notes that while the 2017 surge was fueled by altcoin transactions, ICO participation, and protocol incentives, the current cycle involves direct sales against a deeper liquidity pool.

Institutional Liquidity and Market Balance

K33 highlights significant transactions as evidence, such as the 80,000 BTC over-the-counter sale completed through Galaxy in July, the August exchange of 24,000 BTC for Ethereum$3,093.86, and another sale of approximately 11,000 BTC in the October-November period. It is suggested that similar large movements could play a decisive role in Bitcoin’s relatively weak performance by 2025.

K33 attributes the current wave to liquidity created by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and meaningful demand from corporate treasuries, making it easier for long-term investors to liquidate at six-figure prices. The report records that approximately $300 billion worth of BTC, aged one year or more, returned to circulation just in 2025. This circulation reduced investor concentration, establishing new reference prices for a significant share of the circulating supply.

Looking forward, K33 anticipates a weakening of selling pressure. Lunde recalls that about 20% of the total supply has become active again over the past two years and expects internal Blockchain selling pressure to approach saturation. K33 predicts that the decline in two-year-old supply will end, and the level at the end of 2026 will exceed the current approximately 12.16 million BTC.

The report also discusses the effects of portfolio rebalancing towards the end of the quarter. Lunde notes Bitcoin’s tendency to move in the opposite direction at the start of a new quarter compared to the previous one. Given Bitcoin’s significant underperformance in the 4th quarter relative to other asset classes, managers operating with stable target weights might generate buying flows at the end of December and early January. However, the report warns that supply revivals can typically peak NEAR market tops. Nonetheless, ETFs, advisory platforms, and clearer regulatory frameworks are considered to potentially strengthen demand resilience once distribution pressure weakens.

According to CryptoAppsy data, Bitcoin was trading at $87,115, with a 0.22% drop over the last 24 hours while the article was prepared. Data reveals a 5.39% decline in the leading cryptocurrency over the past week.