U.S. Economic Reports Shake Up Markets: What It Means for Digital Assets in 2025

Economic tremors from Washington ripple through global finance—and crypto's feeling the aftershocks.

The Data Deluge Hits Traditional Markets

Fresh U.S. economic reports just dropped, sending traditional asset classes into their familiar, jittery dance. Stocks wobble, bonds twitch, and gold gets that predictable gleam. It's the same old song—centralized data, centralized panic.

Digital Assets Don't Do 'Business as Usual'

While legacy markets parse inflation nuances and employment figures, the crypto ecosystem operates on a different rhythm. It's a market driven by adoption curves, protocol upgrades, and network effects, not just quarterly GDP revisions. The reaction here isn't a knee-jerk sell-off; it's a recalibration of where real, decentralized value might hide when traditional indicators flash warning signs.

The Decoupling Narrative Gets Louder

Every macro shake-up fuels the debate: are digital assets merely a high-beta tech stock, or are they building a genuinely alternative financial system? Volatility spikes, sure—but the underlying infrastructure keeps building, block by immutable block, regardless of what some government agency prints on a Tuesday.

A Cynical Finance Jab for the Road

It's almost charming how Wall Street still treats economic data like sacred scripture, ignoring the fact that the most innovative store of value in a generation was built to bypass their entire temple. While traders sweat over basis points, the real financial revolution keeps coding through the noise.

The shutdown of the U.S. government has resulted in delays and sequential releases of various reports. While these reports collectively offer a broader perspective, Powell indicates that the numbers may not be entirely reliable due to data collection issues during the shutdown period. Let’s delve into what this barrage of data promises us.

Cryptocurrencies Need to Rise

The unemployment rate recently reached its highest level since September 2021. The 4.6% rate was unforeseen by any Fed member for 2025, highlighting the rationale behind interest rate cuts. Powell and his team focus on inflation, whereas the unemployment rate hits new peaks and inflation remains stable. The Fed’s dual mandate is maximum employment and inflation control. Since 2022, their emphasis on inflation has now led to an employment warning signal.

U.S. employment figures were revised down by 33,000 for the August-September period. Powell anticipated this, and recent reports confirming worse-than-reported employment bolster the case for continued interest rate cuts. However, cryptocurrencies continue their downward trend in this environment.

A series of events are curbing risk appetite, including the forthcoming interest rate decision from Japan, diminishing interest due to the year’s end, and the shocks expected in January from the MSCI and Supreme Court Tariff Decision.

U.S. Data Barrage

The BLS reports a 64% response rate for November, indicating less reliable data than pre-shutdown. However, a decline in employment is evident. U.S. interest rate futures predict two rate cuts in 2026 after labor and retail sales data, with a 58-basis point easing priced in for next year. January interest rate cut expectations ROSE from 22% to 33%.

The non-farm payroll expectation for October was -25K, but it was reported as -105K. August employment figures were revised from -4K to -26K, and September unemployment numbers were revised downward from 119,000 to 108,000. Non-farm payrolls in November were expected to be 50K but came in at 64K. Despite a 4.4% unemployment expectation, it peaked at 4.6%.

The decline in average earnings highlights further potential weaknesses in employment. The Graph below shows the increase in unemployment since March 2023.

Despite being above 6% at the end of 2020, some within the Fed believe they can manage the current situation.

The graph above shows a clear decline in non-farm payrolls over five years, particularly in 2025. Unless new data exceeds expectations, an interest rate cut in January seems possible. However, these factors don’t alleviate the inherent pressures on cryptocurrencies, as BTC remains below 87,000 dollars.