Bitcoin Defies Bearish Trends: Why This Rally Is Different

Bitcoin isn't just recovering—it's rewriting the playbook. Forget the doom-and-gloom predictions; the king of crypto is staging a bullish breakout that's leaving skeptics scrambling.

Here's what's driving the surge:

- Institutional FOMO meets supply crunch: Whales are accumulating, exchanges are bleeding BTC, and Wall Street's late to the party—again.

- Macro tailwinds: With inflation data cooling and rate cuts back on the table, risk assets are back in vogue. (Gold? How 2020.)

- Technical breakout: The 200-week moving average? Obliterated. Previous cycle highs? Now support. This isn't a dead cat bounce—it's a full-blown trend reversal.

Of course, the usual suspects will claim it's all a speculative bubble. But let's be real—when has traditional finance ever timed a crypto market correctly?

One thing's clear: Bitcoin's not just avoiding a bear cycle. It's paving the way for the next bull run. Whether you're onboard or not, the train's leaving the station.

Bitcoin’s recent decline of approximately 25% from its peak of $126,000 on October 6 is viewed by Bernstein analysts as an indication of a short-term correction, rather than the onset of a new bear cycle. The research team, led by Gautam Chhugani, noted that while investors are selling due to historical concerns tied to a four-year cycle, the current fundamentals are more robust than in past periods. They highlighted that about $38 billion worth of 340,000 BTC offloaded by long-term investors in the last six months has been largely absorbed by spot ETFs and institutional purchases.

Institutional Capital and ETFs Cushion the Decline

Bernstein argues that the recent dip is merely a superficial correction and that the market’s structural strength remains intact. They attribute this view to the rise in institutional ownership from 20% at the end of 2024 to 28%, alongside the total managed assets of $125 billion in ETFs. Despite a $3 billion withdrawal in the past three weeks, analysts emphasize that this represents healthy rebalancing rather than an intense wave of sell-off.

The report also dispels concerns regarding the potential sale of assets by Strategy. Bernstein clarified that the company holds $61 billion in Bitcoin$95,262 against $8 billion in debt, and its executives have no plans to sell. Dividends are funded from the treasury, and the company is expected to continue buying throughout market corrections.

Political Winds and Tokenization Trend Remain Strong

Analysts noted that the strategic support for cryptocurrencies, which began during the TRUMP administration, continues, and they anticipate progress in the Clarity Act by the end of this year or early 2026. The expectation is that a more liquid environment, aided by falling interest rates, will emerge as a supportive factor for Bitcoin.

Bernstein highlights that publicly listed crypto companies such as Coinbase, Robinhood, Figure, and Circle surpassed expectations in the third quarter, signaling sustained institutional interest. This trend suggests that tokenization and stablecoins are becoming the two main axes of the new cycle. According to analysts, the market is moving away from the dramatic peak signals of previous cycles. Instead, it’s amid a more measured trend shaped by institutional participation, likely facilitating Bitcoin’s next dip around the $80,000 range as a re-entry opportunity.

According to CryptoAppsy data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $95,389, reflecting a 0.24% drop over the past 24 hours.