ITUB4, BBAS3, BBSC4, BPAC11, SANB11, ROXO31, INTR31: Winners and Losers of Q2 2025 in Brazilian Banking

• Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4): The Unstoppable Titan
• Bradesco (BBDC4): The Comeback Kid
• BTG Pactual (BPAC11): The Overachiever
• Nubank (NU): From Fintech to Heavyweight
• Inter (INBR32): The Dark Horse
• Banco do Brasil (BBAS3): The Unraveling
• Santander Brasil (SANB11): The Underperformer
• Key Takeaways

The second quarter of 2025 was a rollercoaster for Brazil's banking sector. While some giants stumbled, others shattered records, painting a vivid picture of divergence in performance. From Itaú's historic profits to Banco do Brasil's alarming 60% profit drop, this quarter redefined the pecking order. Let's dive DEEP into who's riding high and who's scrambling for recovery.

Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4): The Unstoppable Titan

Itaú isn't just winning - it's rewriting the rulebook. With a staggering R$11.28 billion profit (up 14% YoY), the bank now commands over 40% of the sector's total earnings. Their secret sauce? A killer combo of expanding net interest income (NII) and ironclad delinquency control. Analysts are practically tripping over themselves to raise targets - Genial Investimentos sees 22% upside to R$43.80, while Safra projects annual profits could hit R$46 billion. Even with heavy tech and marketing spends, BTCC's research team notes the quality of these numbers is "exceptional across metrics." The stock's 31% YTD surge tells you everything - this isn't just a bank, it's a well-oiled profit machine.

Bradesco (BBDC4): The Comeback Kid

After eating dust for quarters, Bradesco finally remembered how to bank. A 28.6% profit jump to R$6.07 billion? That's their best Q2 since 2021. The market smelled blood earlier - shares already rocketed 40% this year - but these numbers confirm the turnaround is real. Their NII hit record highs thanks to smarter lending and a juicier portfolio mix. Even their insurance arm (often the problem child) is now a stability pillar. Sure, credit provisions crept up 6.5%, but CEO Marcelo Noronha swears it's just one-time John Deere consolidation pains. Analysts are buying it - Safra's R$21 target implies 34% upside from here.

BTG Pactual (BPAC11): The Overachiever

BTG didn't just beat expectations - it curb-stomped them. A 42% profit surge to R$4.2 billion? That's 13% above Bloomberg consensus. Their ROE (now 27%) leaves Itaú's respectable 23% looking pedestrian. Every revenue line grew 15-40% YoY, though the Safra team warns the IB and Sales & Trading bonanza might be tough to repeat. JPMorgan counters that even if some gains are "one-time," the underlying business is firing on all cylinders. One thing's clear - André Esteves' crew is no longer Brazil's scrappy underdog. They're the new elite.

Nubank (NU): From Fintech to Heavyweight

David just keeps growing into Goliath's armor. US$637 million profit? 28% ROE? NIM expansion? Check, check, and check. Even skeptics are converting - BTG upgraded to "buy" for the first time since IPO, while Itaú BBA flipped from bear to bull. The stock's 16% post-earnings pop shows Wall Street finally gets it: this isn't just a credit card company anymore. With revenue diversification accelerating, Nu might soon outgrow the "fintech" label altogether.

Inter (INBR32): The Dark Horse

Remember when Inter was that quirky digital bank? Yeah, neither do we. R$315 million profit (up 50%) and 13.9% ROE have a way of changing perceptions. BTG's upgrade to "buy" with a R$45 target confirms the turnaround is legit. Credit expansion, operational efficiency, revenue diversification - they're checking every box. If they hit their R$1.4 billion 2025 profit target (another 50% jump), the BDRs' 12% pop will look like pocket change.

Banco do Brasil (BBAS3): The Unraveling

Ouch. A 60% profit crash to R$3.8 billion? ROE cratering to 8%? Agro delinquencies spiking 140bps? This isn't a bad quarter - it's a five-alarm fire. The Safra team bluntly says they "can't call the bottom yet," while BTCC analysts note the deterioration came via "elevator" but recovery will take the "stairs." The scary part? Their "ordinary" rural portfolio shrank R$7 billion while renegotiated loans grew equally - that's a flashing red light for future provisions. Maintaining full-year guidance of R$21-25 billion seems... optimistic.

Santander Brasil (SANB11): The Underperformer

When BTG labels your quarter a "failure," you know it's bad. R$3.6 billion profit (-5% QoQ) missed across the board - risk-adjusted NII down 6%, provisions up 7%. Their SME portfolio is deteriorating faster than a TikTok trend, and digital efficiency gains can't offset Core weaknesses. The market's verdict? Shares tanked post-earnings. CEO Mario Leão has his work cut out.

Key Takeaways

The Brazilian banking landscape is bifurcating - digital-savvy private banks are feasting while traditional players flounder. Itaú and BTG show what happens when execution meets opportunity. Bradesco and Inter prove turnarounds can work. But Banco do Brasil? They're a cautionary tale about what happens when agricultural risks meet operational rigidity. One thing's certain - by Q3, we'll know who's adapting and who's destined for the history books.