Bond Market Surges: How Unexpected Jobs Data Shook Stocks and Fed Expectations

• Wait, the Bond Market Is Rallying Now?
• Why Did Treasury Yields Go Berserk?
• Trump’s Trade Wars: Should We Sweat the Deadline?
• Which Stocks Just Hit "GOAT" Status?
• Tax Reform’s Back—What’s the Play?
• FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered

A blockbuster jobs report sent shockwaves through markets, flipping the script on recession fears and turbocharging stocks. Treasury yields spiked, Fed rate-cut bets evaporated, and the Dow roared higher—all while Trump’s trade deadlines loomed. Here’s why traders are suddenly pricing in "higher for longer" and which stocks just hit lifetime highs.

Wait, the Bond Market Is Rallying Now?

Talk about a plot twist! June’s jobs report dropped like a grenade in a kiddie pool—147,000 nonfarm payrolls added (crushing the 110K estimate), unemployment dipping to 4.1% (vs. 4.3% expected), and even May’s numbers got upgraded to 144K. The BTCC analytics team noted this erased Wednesday’s doom-and-gloom from ADP’s private payrolls showing 33K job losses. Cue the market whiplash: Dow up 381 points (0.9%), S&P 500 +0.8%, Nasdaq +1%. Even CoinGlass data showed futures traders slashed July rate-cut odds to 5%—basically saying "nevermind" to Fed easing.

Why Did Treasury Yields Go Berserk?

Picture this: Bond traders scrambling like Black Friday shoppers when the 10-year yield jumped 12 basis points overnight. Why? That jobs report screamed "overheating economy," forcing markets to yank forward their Fed timelines. CME’s FedWatch now shows 95% odds rates stay frozen in July. "The market’s doing a full 180—from ‘cuts coming’ to ‘maybe next year,’" quipped one BTCC desk analyst. Even Gold got wrecked as the dollar flexed.

Trump’s Trade Wars: Should We Sweat the Deadline?

While bonds stole headlines, Wall Street’s other obsession is Trump’s 90-day tariff truce expiring next week. The guy’s already flexing with a new US-Vietnam deal (confirmed Wednesday). Traders are glued to headlines—if tariffs snap back, expect meme-stock volatility. But here’s the kicker: Russell 2000 small-caps just turned green for 2023, up 24% since April. That’s a tell that risk appetite isn’t dead yet.

Which Stocks Just Hit "GOAT" Status?

Thursday’s early close for July 4th didn’t stop these monsters:

• Royal Caribbean – Highest since IPO
• American Express – Topping 1977 debut levels
• Nvidia/Oracle – Fresh all-time highs

Total flex: 36 S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week peaks, 25 at lifetime highs. Even Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan joined the party—something we haven’t seen since pre-COVID.

Tax Reform’s Back—What’s the Play?

Trump’s tax bill cleared the Senate Tuesday, now awaiting House approval. If passed, corporate tax structures could get overhauled by fall. Meanwhile, TradingView charts show S&P up 1.5% weekly, Dow +2.1%. Not bad for a holiday-shortened week!

FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered

How reliable was this jobs data?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the gold standard, but revisions happen. Cross-check with ADP and wage growth figures.

Should I buy bonds now?

This article does not constitute investment advice. That said, the yield spike suggests traders expect fewer Fed cuts—do your own research.

Why did small-caps rally?

Russell 2000’s surge hints investors see domestic growth surviving trade wars—smaller firms rely less on global supply chains.