Tesouro Direto in 2025: IPCA+ 2029 Bonds Near 8% Yield, Hitting December Highs
- Why Are Tesouro Direto Yields Surging?
- Global Bonds: A Quick Reality Check
- B3’s Bad Day: Politics and Options Expiry Weigh
- Tesouro Direto Rates: Full Breakdown
- Fixed vs. Inflation-Linked: Which Wins?
- Retirement and Education Bonds: Hidden Gems?
- FAQ: Your Tesouro Direto Questions Answered
Brazil’s Tesouro Direto bonds are making waves this December, with the IPCA+ 2029 note flirting with an 8% yield—its highest since October’s peak of 8.08%. Meanwhile, longer-dated inflation-linked bonds and fixed-rate securities also rally, offering investors a rare mix of stability and juicy returns. Below, we break down the numbers, compare global bond trends, and explore why São Paulo’s stock market is sulking today.
Why Are Tesouro Direto Yields Surging?
Inflation-linked bonds (IPCA+) are stealing the spotlight. The 2029 maturity is now yielding 7.99%, just a hair shy of its all-time high. Not to be outdone, the 2040 and 2050 IPCA+ bonds follow closely at 7.05% and 7.03%, respectively. Fixed-rate bonds aren’t lagging either—the 2028, 2032, and 2035 prefixes boast yields of 13.19%, 13.81%, and 13.81%. For context, U.S. 10-year Treasuries are at 4.147%, making Brazil’s paper a high-octane alternative.
Global Bonds: A Quick Reality Check
While Brazil’s bonds sizzle, U.S. long-dated Treasuries dipped slightly today. The 20- and 30-year yields settled at 4.77% and 4.817%, per TradingView data. The gap between emerging and developed market debt? Wider than a Carnival parade. But remember: higher yields often mean higher risk—especially with Brazil’s election noise creeping back into headlines (more on that later).
B3’s Bad Day: Politics and Options Expiry Weigh
São Paulo’s stock market (B3) is in the red, thanks to a double whammy: monthly options expiry and jitters over the 2026 election polls. A leaked Genial/Quaest survey shows Lula leading all second-round scenarios (41% vote intent), while Flávio Bolsonaro (23%) outpaces São Paulo’s governor Tarcísio (10%) among right-wing rivals. Markets hate uncertainty, and this is a masterclass in it.
Tesouro Direto Rates: Full Breakdown
| Inflation-Linked Bonds | Annual Yield | Min. Investment (R$) | Unit Price (R$) | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesouro IPCA+ 2029 | IPCA + 7.99% | 35.29 | 3,529.92 | 15/05/2029 |
| Tesouro IPCA+ 2040 | IPCA + 7.05% | 16.94 | 1,694.73 | 15/08/2040 |
| Tesouro IPCA+ 2050 | IPCA + 7.03% | 8.65 | 865.63 | 15/08/2050 |
Fixed vs. Inflation-Linked: Which Wins?
Fixed-rate bonds (Prefixados) offer eye-popping nominal yields—up to 13.81% for 2032/2035 maturities. But inflation erodes their real returns over time. IPCA+ bonds, while lower nominally, guarantee purchasing power. My take? Hedge your bets. Split allocations between both, especially if you think Brazil’s central bank might cut rates sooner than expected.
Retirement and Education Bonds: Hidden Gems?
Niche products like Tesouro Renda+ (retirement) and Educa+ (education) offer IPCA+ yields of 6.95–8.16%. The Educa+ 2026 bond, for instance, yields IPCA + 8.16%—higher than most savings accounts. But liquidity is tighter, and maturities stretch decades. Ideal for long-term goals, not quick flips.
FAQ: Your Tesouro Direto Questions Answered
What’s driving Tesouro Direto yields higher?
Three factors: (1) Global inflation fears, (2) Brazil’s political uncertainty, and (3) demand for high-yielding EM assets as U.S. rate hikes pause.
Are these yields sustainable?
Historically, yes—Brazil’s real rates are among the world’s highest. But watch for central bank policy shifts post-2026 elections.
How do I buy Tesouro Direto bonds?
Through Banco do Brasil, B3, or brokerage platforms. Minimum investments start at R$35 (IPCA+ 2029).
