Itaú (ITUB4): Analysts Predict Massive Dividend Payout After Record-Breaking Profits in 2025

• Why Is Itaú (ITUB4) a Standout Performer?
• How Big Could the Dividend Payout Be?
• What Are the Key Risks to Watch?
• Why Are Analysts Bullish on Itaú’s Future?
• How Does Itaú Stack Up Against Competitors?
• What Should Investors Do Now?
• FAQs About Itaú’s Record Profits and Dividends

Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) has once again proven its dominance in Brazil’s banking sector, posting a historic quarterly profit of nearly R$12 billion. Analysts are now eyeing a potential dividend windfall for shareholders, with estimates reaching R$31 billion. Despite a slight dip in share price, the bank’s robust performance and strategic initiatives keep Optimism high. Here’s a deep dive into what’s driving the numbers and what investors can expect next.

Why Is Itaú (ITUB4) a Standout Performer?

Itaú’s ability to consistently outperform expectations is no fluke. With a return on equity (ROE) of 23.3%—up 0.6 percentage points year-over-year—the bank has solidified its position as Brazil’s most profitable and well-capitalized incumbent. CEO Milton Maluhy emphasized the bank’s commitment to balancing growth and profitability, stating, "We have to always find the sweet spot between growth and returns. I don’t see any short-term trend change in our 20% ROE target."

How Big Could the Dividend Payout Be?

Bradesco BBI analysts crunched the numbers: assuming 4.5% loan growth in 2025 and a CET1 ratio target of 12.3%, Itaú could distribute an extraordinary dividend of around R$31 billion. "The results showed favorable trends, mostly in line with expectations," noted analysts Marcelo Mizrahi and Renato Chanes. While operational expenses slightly missed forecasts, the bank’s strong capital position (CET1 at 13.5%) leaves ample room for shareholder rewards.

What Are the Key Risks to Watch?

No earnings report is flawless. Analysts flagged rising operational costs and a 2% miss on net interest margin (NIM) expectations. Delinquency rates also inched up, particularly in the large corporate segment (0.9 pp increase to 1%). However, Itaú attributed this to a single, long-standing client—already provisioned—ruling out recent high-profile cases like Ambipar (AMB3).

Why Are Analysts Bullish on Itaú’s Future?

Genial Investimentos reiterated its "buy" rating with a R$46.80 price target (17.1% upside), praising Itaú’s capital strength and digital transformation via its Super App (One Itaú). For yield-focused investors, ordinary shares (ITUB3) trade at just 7.4x 2025 P/E—a discount to preferred shares with identical dividend policies. "Itaú’s consistency and resilience make it a long-term winner," the report concluded.

How Does Itaú Stack Up Against Competitors?

BTG Pactual sees Itaú, BTG (BPAC11), and Nubank (ROXO34) as Brazil’s banking "endgame winners"—firms capable of growing regardless of macroeconomic winds. "In a world where few thrive, these players will command premium valuations," analysts noted. Itaú’s aggressive efficiency push (including a full cloud migration and 10 pp cost/revenue improvement in retail banking) could further squeeze rivals.

What Should Investors Do Now?

With most analysts maintaining positive ratings, Itaú remains a Core holding for Brazilian equity portfolios. The coming months could see catalysts from dividend announcements and progress on efficiency targets. As always, diversification is key—consider pairing ITUB4 with growth names like Nu Holdings for balanced exposure.