Fiscal Adjustment, Privatizations, and Agribusiness: Caiado, Leite, Tarcísio, and Ratinho Jr. Outline Brazil’s "Recipe" at BTG’s AgroForum

• Why Fiscal Adjustment Isn’t the End Goal—But a Means to Growth
• Caiado’s Blunt Critique: “Forget Reform Under Lula”
• Privatizations in Action: Sabesp’s Triple Investment Leap
• Agribusiness as Brazil’s Engine: “No Time to Lose”
• 2026 Elections: Opposition Unity Against Lula’s Legacy
• FAQ: Key Takeaways from BTG’s AgroForum

At the BTG Pactual AgroForum, governors Eduardo Leite (RS), Ronaldo Caiado (GO), Tarcísio de Freitas (SP), and Ratinho Jr. (PR) debated Brazil’s economic future, emphasizing fiscal discipline, privatizations, and agribusiness as key drivers. While criticizing the current federal government’s populist policies, they showcased state-level successes in infrastructure and social programs. The event highlighted 2026 presidential ambitions and a unified vision for growth—but with sharp political divisions.

Why Fiscal Adjustment Isn’t the End Goal—But a Means to Growth

Eduardo Leite (PSD-RS) kicked off the panel with a pragmatic take: “Fiscal adjustment isn’t the objective—it’s the tool.” He argued that balanced budgets enable investment capacity, citing Rio Grande do Sul’s expanded social programs post-austerity. “It’s not about austerity for its own sake. We’ve proven fiscal responsibility funds progress,” he added, taking a swipe at federal claims that cuts harm social welfare.

Caiado’s Blunt Critique: “Forget Reform Under Lula”

Ronaldo Caiado (União-GO) didn’t mince words: “As long as Lula’s president, expect populism over prudence.” His critique resonated with the pro-market audience, emphasizing administrative reform and asset sales. Goiás’ agribusiness boom, he noted, was fueled by private-sector partnerships—a model he’d push nationally if elected in 2026.

Privatizations in Action: Sabesp’s Triple Investment Leap

Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) spotlighted São Paulo’s Sabesp privatization as a case study. “Private management tripled investment in sanitation,” he said, countering opposition fears. Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR) echoed this, joking, “Just elect someone ‘normal’ in 2026, and Brazil takes off.” His state’s agribusiness pivot—like turning whey protein from pig feed to a premium export—showcased value-added industrialization.

Agribusiness as Brazil’s Engine: “No Time to Lose”

The governors agreed: agribusiness must anchor growth. Ratinho Jr. stressed scaling food production, while Caiado warned against “missing the commodity supercycle.” Leite added nuance, advocating for tech integration to avoid Dutch disease—a rare moment of policy depth in the politically charged forum.

2026 Elections: Opposition Unity Against Lula’s Legacy

Though differing on tactics, all panelists opposed Lula’s reelection bid. BTG’s André Esteves framed them as “2026’s protagonists,” hinting at financial-sector preferences. Privatizations and agro-infrastructure emerged as unifying themes, with SP and PR’s highway concessions cited as replicable models.

FAQ: Key Takeaways from BTG’s AgroForum

What was the main argument for fiscal adjustment?

Leite positioned it as a means to enable investments, not an ideological goal. “You fix budgets to fund schools, not just balance sheets,” he said.

How did privatizations perform in practice?

Tarcísio’s Sabesp example showed operational gains, but critics note service tariffs ROSE 22% post-privatization—a tension unaddressed in the panel.

Why focus on agribusiness?

Brazil feeds 800 million globally; the governors argued scaling production with tech could double trade surpluses by 2030.