Oversold, Undervalued, or in Decline? BTC Tests Critical Support Zone in 2025

• Bitcoin’s Macro Déjà Vu: Shutdowns, Selloffs, and Cycles
• 2017 vs. 2025: Seven Dips to Parabolic Glory
• Oversold Bounce or Dead Cat?
• Kiyosaki’s Crash Prophecy vs. BTC’s Resilience
• The BTCC Team’s Take
• FAQ: Your Bitcoin Dip Questions, Answered

Bitcoin is grappling to regain footing after dropping to around $95,000, driven by renewed macroeconomic uncertainties post-U.S. government shutdown. Analysts note eerie parallels to 2019 and 2017 cycles, with volatility compression hinting at a potential explosive rally. Short-term indicators suggest oversold conditions, but macro risks linger. Will history repeat, or will global chaos rewrite the script?

Bitcoin’s Macro Déjà Vu: Shutdowns, Selloffs, and Cycles

Bitcoin’s recent plunge to $95,000 feels like a broken record for veterans. The trigger? Classic post-shutdown turbulence—just like in 2019 when BTC stumbled days after the U.S. government resumed operations. Crypto Rover’s tweet from November 15, 2025, highlights the uncanny resemblance: “After the last government shutdown ended in 2019, bitcoin also dropped sharply in the first few days.” This isn’t coincidence; it’s crypto’s twisted version of seasonal allergies.

2017 vs. 2025: Seven Dips to Parabolic Glory

Zooming out, cycle analyst EGRAG spots a fractal echo. Both 2017 and 2025 saw seven major pullbacks before parabolic breakouts—though 2025’s dips average 25% versus 2017’s 37%. The last three corrections in each cycle are practically twins: late 2017 saw -39%, -41%, and -33% drops before liftoff. Now? Volatility compression suggests energy is building beneath the surface, like a coiled spring. EGRAG’s long-term target remains $175K, but first, BTC must hold $92K-$95K.

Oversold Bounce or Dead Cat?

The 4-hour chart screams oversold (RSI 35, MACD flattening)—a classic reversal setup, though not a guarantee. Traders are eyeing $92K-$95K as the make-or-break zone. Break below? Hello, $80K. Hold? Fuel for the next leg up. But macro winds aren’t helping: leverage evaporated, open interest tanked, and everyone’s playing defense. Ironically, this is exactly the psychological desert where bull runs germinate.

Kiyosaki’s Crash Prophecy vs. BTC’s Resilience

Robert Kiyosaki’s doom warning (“the real crash is coming—Bitcoin will survive”) feels both ominous and redundant. Yes, crashes happen. Yes, BTC rebounds. The real question is whether this dip is another “buy the fear” moment. Historical patterns say yes; global instability says “maybe not.”

The BTCC Team’s Take

“Markets MOVE in cycles, but never photocopies,” notes a BTCC analyst. “2025’s smaller pullbacks suggest stronger institutional absorption—though macro shocks could override technicals.” Their advice? Watch CoinMarketCap’s funding rates and TradingView’s orderbook heatmaps for clues.

FAQ: Your Bitcoin Dip Questions, Answered

Why does Bitcoin drop after government shutdowns?

Post-shutdown selloffs often reflect delayed risk reassessment. Traders initially celebrate resolution, then realize underlying issues (debt, inflation) remain.

How reliable are cycle comparisons?

History rhymes, but regulators, ETFs, and macro chaos make 2025 unique. Use past cycles as context, not crystal balls.

Is $95K a good entry point?

This article does not constitute investment advice. That said, RSI suggests short-term bounce potential—if macro cooperates.