Axia, Formerly Eletrobras (ELET3): Is It Worth Buying the Stock to Pocket the R$4.3 Billion in Dividends in 2025?

• Why Is Axia Energia’s Stock Rallying?
• Dividend Bonanza: Too Good to Ignore?
• Operational Wins and Risks
• Should You Buy ELET3 for the Dividends?
• FAQ

In a year marked by volatile markets, Axia Energia (formerly Eletrobras) has emerged as a standout performer, with its shares (ELET3, ELET6) surging over 60% year-to-date. The company’s latest earnings report for Q3 2025 has reignited investor enthusiasm, thanks to robust financials and a whopping R$4.3 billion dividend payout. But is this dividend play as sweet as it seems? Let’s break it down.

Why Is Axia Energia’s Stock Rallying?

Axia’s shares jumped over 3% on November 6, 2025, after reporting stellar Q3 results. Both ordinary (ELET3) and preferred shares (ELET6) were among the top gainers on the Ibovespa, lifting the broader Brazilian market. The company’s adjusted regulatory EBITDA hit R$5.9 billion, 20% above BTG Pactual’s estimates, while IFRS net income reached R$2.2 billion—far surpassing the projected R$651 million. Even with a 35% negative GSF (a measure of hydropower generation shortfalls), Axia’s strategic portfolio management delivered impressive margins. "Their ability to thrive in such conditions shows masterful market anticipation," noted BTG’s analysts.

Dividend Bonanza: Too Good to Ignore?

Axia announced R$4.3 billion in dividends, bringing its 2025 total to R$8.3 billion. XP Investimentos praised the new dividend policy, maintaining a "buy" rating and a R$59.30 target price (9.7% upside). Meanwhile, Bradesco BBI highlighted Axia’s "solid" energy trading results, though Safra Bank flagged one-time losses of R$5.4 billion from the Eletronuclear sale. Safra’s cautious R$45.70 target for ELET3 suggests a potential pullback after the stock’s rally.

Operational Wins and Risks

Axia’s restructuring is paying off: divestments (like thermal plants and Eletronuclear) and resolved disputes (Amazonas Energia, RBSE) have slashed structural risks. Its hydropower fleet outperformed despite Brazil’s dry spell, with generation margins rising. But here’s the kicker: while adjusted EBITDA beat consensus by 10–18%, IFRS results were messy due to non-recurring costs. "Operationally strong, but the accounting noise is real," quipped one trader.

Should You Buy ELET3 for the Dividends?

Pros: High yields, sector-leading execution, and bullish analyst ratings (BTG, XP). Cons: Valuation concerns post-rally and lingering regulatory exposure. As one BTCC analyst put it, "The dividend is juicy, but don’t sleep on the GSF risk." For long-term holders, Axia’s transformation story remains compelling—just maybe wait for a dip.

FAQ

What drove Axia’s Q3 2025 earnings beat?

Strong energy generation margins and cost controls, despite a 35% hydropower shortfall (GSF). Adjusted EBITDA of R$5.9 billion topped estimates by 20%.

How sustainable are Axia’s dividends?

With R$8.3 billion paid year-to-date and a new distribution policy, payouts look stable—but depend on continued operational efficiency and regulatory stability.

Why is Safra Bank less bullish than peers?

Safra cites valuation concerns after ELET3’s 60% YTD surge and one-time losses, setting a R$45.70 target (below current prices).