Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Stuck Below $115K—Will Low Leverage Spark a Violent Upside Breakout?

Bitcoin's grinding below $115K has traders sweating—but the market's unusually low leverage could be priming a coiled-spring rally. Here's why complacent bears might regret their shorts.

The squeeze setup no one's talking about

With open interest muted and funding rates neutral, BTC's price action resembles a pressure cooker building steam. Retail's sidelined, whales are accumulating, and derivatives traders aren't positioned for fireworks.

When technicals meet market psychology

Every local top gets called 'the top' until it isn't—just ask the 2024 cycle traders who missed the run to $90K. Now, with spot ETF inflows steady and miner capitulation absent, this 'boring' consolidation might be the calm before the storm.

Of course, Wall Street analysts will claim they predicted the move—right after it happens.

The cryptocurrency’s price slipped nearly 2% in the last 24 hours, raising questions about whether short-term holders are losing confidence or simply managing risk. Meanwhile, institutional investors continue to accumulate, setting the stage for a potential turnaround as the broader market digests these mixed signals.

Bitcoin Price Today: Weak Momentum But No Panic

As of early August 2, Bitcoin price today hovered around $113,616 with a 1.34% daily loss and roughly 7% below its mid-July high of $123,000. The downturn has largely been attributed to spot market activity, rather than a leverage-driven selloff, which often results in sharper liquidations.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $113,616, down 1.34% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

According to Glassnode, total BTC liquidations stood at $109.9 million—modest compared to past corrections—indicating a lack of leverage pressure. The open interest-to-market cap ratio remained stable at 0.027, showing no signs of panic from derivatives traders. Unlike previous drops sparked by margin calls and cascading liquidations, this MOVE appears to stem from holders voluntarily selling off positions.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Support Weakness Raises Short-Term Risks

A closer look at the charts reveals some vulnerabilities in bitcoin technical analysis. On-chain data from CryptoQuant highlighted the absence of strong support between $112,000 and $115,800. BTC’s swift climb earlier in July left little room for consolidation, creating what’s often described as “thin air” below the current price zone.

Bitcoin’s rapid jump from $112K to $115.8K created a support gap, leaving the price vulnerable to a sharp drop if current levels fail to hold. Source: CryptoQuant via X

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn explained, “There’s no past resistance or consolidation that could now act as support. If this final support area breaks, price could move down quickly.”

In parallel, activity in Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) suggests increased sensitivity among investors. The ratio of UTXOs spent in profit versus loss, which peaked at 10,000:1 in mid-July, has now dropped to around 500:1. This shift indicates that short-term holders are reacting more sharply to minor corrections—possibly out of risk management or uncertainty about near-term performance.

Bitcoin Halving 2025 and Institutional Accumulation

Despite the short-term sell pressure, the bigger picture remains supportive of Bitcoin’s long-term value. The upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2025 continues to serve as a bullish narrative for investors seeking to accumulate early.

Institutional interest hasn’t waned either. MicroStrategy recently filed with the SEC to raise an additional $4.2 billion in stock offerings, aimed at acquiring more Bitcoin. Just days earlier, it spent $2.46 billion to add 21,021 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 628,791 BTC at an average cost of $73,227.

Meanwhile, Japanese firm Metaplanet announced plans to raise $3.7 billion to support its own Bitcoin strategy, aiming to amass 210,000 BTC by 2027. The company already holds 17,132 BTC, now valued at approximately $1.73 billion.

These large-scale acquisitions suggest that while retail traders may be jittery, institutional players are still confident in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Bitcoin Whale Activity and Market Psychology

Glassnode data also sheds light on the Bitcoin whale alert and trader behavior. Roughly 85.5% of the BTC sold in the past 24 hours came from short-term holders, who are generally more reactive to price movements. Long-term holders accounted for just 14.5%, reaffirming that most seasoned investors are holding firm.

Despite declines in BTC and ETH, low liquidations and modest open interest drawdowns suggest the dip is driven by spot selling rather than a leverage-induced cascade. Source: Glassnode via X

This pattern suggests that recent selling was driven more by tactical moves than structural weakness. With no significant leverage shakeout and continued institutional interest, Bitcoin could be setting up for a rebound—provided macro conditions stabilize and spot buying returns.

Expert Insights: Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge and Forecast Scenarios

Many investors continue to view Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, particularly in a high-interest-rate environment with increasing global debt levels. The narrative is gaining traction as governments and corporations explore Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, reinforcing its long-term utility.

Bitcoin may enter a short-term accumulation phase following its recent rally, potentially building momentum for a renewed parabolic breakout. Source: EtherNasyonaL on TradingView

While Bitcoin could retest the $112,000 zone if weakness persists, traders are looking for a potential breakout. The lack of excessive leverage opens the door for a less volatile recovery, especially if demand returns gradually from sidelined buyers.

Bitcoin’s Next Move: Volatility Likely, But No Structural Breakdown

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s current dip appears to be part of a broader consolidation phase, rather than a sign of collapse. Low leverage participation, spot-driven selloffs, and continued whale accumulation all point toward a potentially bullish setup once selling pressure eases.

As we move through August, all eyes remain on Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the $117K–$120K range. With institutional players accumulating and the Bitcoin ETF news cycle quiet for now, the next major catalyst could emerge from macro events—or a surprise spark in demand.