Palladium Price Plunges to $1,351 Support as China Imports Hit Record High – 10% Correction Warning Issued

In a dramatic turn for the precious metals market, the palladium price has tested the critical $1,351 support level, triggering a warning from analysts that a 10% correction is imminent. This comes despite China's palladium imports surging to a record high, a development that under normal circumstances would signal robust demand. The disconnect between soaring imports and falling prices suggests a buildup of inventory or a shift in market sentiment, leaving investors on edge as the industrial metal's near-term outlook dims. The current price action underscores the volatile nature of commodity markets, even as physical demand from top consumers like China remains at unprecedented levels.

The charts shared by analysts showed price trading near the $1,350 region after losing momentum from earlier highs.

The technical weakness came as China’s palladium demand showed a sharp jump. According to a report, China imported a record 8.6 tons of palladium in April, almost three times the seasonal average, as local prices attracted more inflows.

Palladium Returns to Range Lows

Cheds Trading said palladium had moved into range lows, pointing to a daily chart where the price is testing a blue support band. The chart places that demand area roughly between $1,330 and $1,360, where buyers previously stepped in during earlier pullbacks.

As per the X chart data, the price has dropped from the $2,000 area earlier in the year and has now returned to the lower part of the structure. The chart also shows several moving averages above the current level, which means buyers still need a strong recovery to repair the short-term trend.

The lower Bollinger Band sits close to the same region, showing that palladium has stretched into a pressure zone. This can support a reaction bounce, but it does not confirm a reversal by itself.

A failure to hold above the blue support level would indicate that the sellers are taking control with new supply plans nearing production, bringing the lower levels near $1,250 and $1,200 back into consideration. A recovery of the band would, instead, maintain the range.

False Breakdown Setup Draws Attention

Analyst TheApeOfGoldStreet went with a false breakdown. He is seeing palladium making its way toward a circled area around horizontal support after breaking below a short descending trendline.

It is in the neighborhood of $1340 – $1360 on the price scale. A break into the circled support followed by a reclaim will put the analyst in an “easy long” position, the analyst said.

The X chart says that the idea is based on the assumption of sellers failing to trade below the support price. A palladium break in the green line, followed by a bounce, can hold a late short and cause a bounce.

But opposition is close at hand. The chart below also displays a white descending trend line above the price, indicating the next price recovery zone is around $1,420. If a recovery can be expected, it will have to take out that territory before it’s able to push toward $1,500.

China Imports Add Demand Support

The April import figures from China provide an important piece of the background for physical markets. Shipments rose to 8.6 tons, a record level and almost triple the seasonal average.

The rise indicates that there was an increase in local demand or arbitrage activity as Chinese prices rose above global market prices. This usually doesn’t push prices higher on the spot market, but it does indicate that the chart was getting weak because people were buying physically.

There are now two signals between each other. Technical charts suggest we’ll see more pressure around the range lows, but import data is indicating more Chinese inflows.

The rest of the move will come down to the $1330-1360 support zone. If the area could be maintained, it would allow their rebound to $1,420 and $1,500. If prices break below it, sellers will have daily control, confirming the downtrend. If prices clear below it, sellers will have the daily structure, and the downtrend will be confirmed.