Is the ‘miracle’ of reassuring economic data finally collapsing in 2025?
The facade of economic stability is cracking—just in time for another round of Wall Street spin.
Signs of trouble ahead
Behind the rosy headlines, liquidity traps and yield curve distortions hint at systemic fragility. The Fed’s ‘transitory’ narrative looks as durable as a meme stock’s valuation.
Markets aren’t buying it
From inverted Treasuries to Bitcoin’s resurgence as a hedge, smart money’s voting with its wallet. Traditional metrics? About as reliable as a Celsius balance sheet.
Wake-up call or false alarm?
Either way, the next crisis won’t wait for CNBC to package it neatly. Brace for impact—or at least another round of ‘unexpected’ volatility.
Since companies had front-run all their imports, this dynamic reversed, where imports were minimal once the tariffs were actually implemented.
This led to a huge positive reversal in GDP nowcast:
Mechanically, this reversal in the other direction has trickled through the economy and led to a strong bounce in the soft data:
We’re now beginning to see early signs that this mechanical bounce in growth is beginning to head back lower.
In the labor market, although the topline data like the unemployment rate hasn’t increased, leading labor indicators are continuing their march higher:
Further, it looks like the housing market is beginning to deteriorate after being frozen in place for the last year:
Overall, with the FOMC committed to being as late to restart rate cuts as possible, the risks are building up.
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