Kalshi’s $2B Valuation Decoded: Why the Numbers Actually Add Up

Event derivatives platform Kalshi just joined the $2 billion club—and Wall Street's scratching its head. Here's why the skeptics are wrong.

The betting market no one saw coming

Forget meme stocks and crypto hype. Kalshi's built a legal casino for economic events—inflation prints, Fed decisions, even climate policy. Turns out, institutional investors love gambling when you call it 'hedging.'

Why $2B isn’t crazy (for once)

Unlike most 2025 'unicorns,' Kalshi's got real revenue from prop traders and hedge funds paying premium for non-correlated assets. The kicker? Their SEC approval lets them bypass traditional bookmakers—sorry, 'market makers.'

The cynical take

Of course Wall Street would value a prediction market at 200x earnings—they've been pricing stocks on vibes since 2020. At least this time there's an actual business model underneath the hype.